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AAV.TO$9.88+1.54%
Fair $9.88+0.0%

AAV.TO

Advantage Energy Ltd.

Energy / Oil & Gas E&PToronto

$9.88

+0.15 (+1.54%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $9.88Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 39/D
F-Score: 7/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 17%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-34.3M · quality 40.7/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 15/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

39/100

D

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. ROE is 3.1%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · AAV.TOLocal privado en este navegador · Advantage Energy Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.7B

P/E

15.2x

↓

EV/EBITDA

6.8x

↓

ROE

3.1%

↓

Gross Margin

59.3%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.47

↑
52-Week Range$10
$9$13

TradingView lightweight chart

AAV.TO price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $9.880Periodo +38.6%
Fair value: $9.880

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-9.9%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-4.9%

FCF / Net income

-0.65x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $705.9M · net income $53.1M · FCF $-34.3M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

59.3%-15.3% pts

Operating margin

14.0%-41.7% pts

Net margin

7.5%-27.6% pts

FCF margin

-4.9%-31.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$705.9M$705.9M$550.1M$551.9M$964.4M
Net Income$53.1M$53.1M$21.7M$101.6M$338.7M
EBITDA$360.6M$360.6M$281.9M$314.9M$596.7M
EPS0.310.310.130.591.75
Gross Margin59.3%59.3%54.2%64.7%74.6%
Operating Margin14.0%14.0%6.2%27.3%55.7%
Net Margin7.5%7.5%3.9%18.4%35.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.470.470.430.170.13
Current Ratio0.380.38———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-34.3M$-34.3M$-85.5M$49.7M$260.6M
Returns
ROE3.1%3.1%1.3%6.5%21.7%
Valuation
P/E15.2015.2076.3814.594.75
EV/EBITDA6.826.828.285.462.96
P/B0.990.991.010.951.03
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth28.3%28.3%-0.3%-42.8%—
EPS Growth138.5%138.5%-78.0%-66.3%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

41.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.88

Spread vs growth

97.0%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

27.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.06

Spread vs growth

110.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

18.6%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.71

Spread vs growth

119.9%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -11.6%

Total return

-11.6%

Start / end P/E

86.0x → 31.9x

EPS bridge

0.13 → 0.31

Residual

-87.1%

EPS growth+138.5%
Multiple rerating-62.9%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-87.1%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.