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ADTN$18.65+4.25%
Fair $18.65+0.0%

ADTN

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.

Technology / Communication EquipmentNasdaqGS

$18.65

+0.76 (+4.25%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $18.65Fund rank 22/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 40/C
F-Score: 7/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 23%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $38.4M · quality 29.7/100

Data gap 22/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 17/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

40/100

C

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 18Warnings: 1unknown: 18
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists. ROE is -31.3%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · ADTNLocal privado en este navegador · ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.5B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

20.3x

↑

ROE

-31.3%

↓

Gross Margin

38.3%

↑

Debt/Equity

1.68

↑
52-Week Range$19
$7$20

TradingView lightweight chart

ADTN price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $18.63Periodo -27.2%
Fair value: $18.65

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2008–2025 · 17 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+4.6%

FCF CAGR

-3.3%

FCF margin

5.6%

FCF / Net income

-1.33x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.08B · net income $-45.7M · FCF $60.5M

2008-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

38.3%-21.4% pts

Operating margin

-1.4%-24.2% pts

Net margin

-4.2%-19.9% pts

FCF margin

5.6%-15.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
Income Statement
Revenue$1.08B$1.08B$922.7M$1.15B$1.03B$563.0M$506.5M$530.1M$529.3M$666.9M$636.8M$600.1M$630.0M$641.7M$620.6M$717.2M$605.7M$484.2M$500.7M
Net Income$-45.7M$-45.7M$-459.9M$-268.9M$-2.0M$-8.6M$2.4M$-53.0M$-19.3M$23.8M$35.2M$18.6M$44.6M$45.8M$47.3M$138.6M$114.0M$74.2M$78.6M
EBITDA$80.6M$80.6M$-330.1M$-104.4M$27000.00$1.4M$6.9M$-22.2M$-29.5M$53.1M$49.0M$27.7M$62.0M$63.1M$70.2M$200.6M$164.4M$114.3M$123.7M
EPS-0.52-0.52-5.67-3.41-0.03-0.180.05-1.11-0.400.490.720.360.800.770.742.121.781.171.22
Gross Margin38.3%38.3%35.1%28.8%31.9%38.8%43.0%41.3%38.5%45.5%45.8%44.5%49.4%48.1%51.0%57.8%59.3%59.3%59.7%
Operating Margin-1.4%-1.4%-14.1%-16.2%-5.4%-2.6%-1.9%-7.5%-8.6%5.6%5.4%2.2%7.5%7.6%9.1%26.4%25.4%21.5%22.7%
Net Margin-4.2%-4.2%-49.8%-23.4%-0.2%-1.5%0.5%-10.0%-3.7%3.6%5.5%3.1%7.1%7.1%7.6%19.3%18.8%15.3%15.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.681.681.700.370.15——0.060.060.050.060.060.050.080.070.070.080.110.13
Current Ratio1.771.77—————————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$60.5M$60.5M$38.4M$-88.8M$-61.3M$-2.7M$-22.9M$-12.0M$47.3M$-57.1M$20.6M——$51.6M$73.6M$138.7M$82.9M$81.4M$106.3M
Returns
ROE-31.3%-31.3%-362.3%-44.4%-0.2%-2.4%0.6%-13.9%-4.3%4.8%7.3%3.9%8.1%7.6%6.8%20.0%19.9%16.4%20.9%
Valuation
EV/EBITDA20.2920.29——45504.55——————————————
P/B10.2010.205.620.931.23——————————————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth17.5%17.5%-19.7%12.0%—11.2%-4.4%0.1%-20.6%4.7%6.1%-4.8%-1.8%3.4%-13.5%18.4%25.1%-3.3%—
EPS Growth90.8%90.8%-66.3%-11266.7%—-460.0%104.5%-177.5%-181.6%-31.9%100.0%-55.0%3.9%4.1%-65.1%19.1%52.1%-4.1%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +120.7%

Total return

+120.7%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-5.67 → -0.52

Residual

+120.7%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+120.7%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.