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AGUA.MX$13.27+2.64%
Fair $13.27+0.0%

AGUA.MX

Grupo Rotoplas S.A.B. de C.V.

Industrials / Building Products & EquipmentMexico

$13.27

+0.34 (+2.64%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $13.27Fund rank 32/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 47/C
F-Score: 4/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 26% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $681.1M · quality 59.0/100

Data gap 32/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 53/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

47/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is 0.2%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · AGUA.MXLocal privado en este navegador · Grupo Rotoplas S.A.B. de C.V.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$6.4B

P/E

63.2x

↑

EV/EBITDA

8.7x

↓

ROE

0.2%

↓

Gross Margin

41.7%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.91

↑
52-Week Range$13
$10$15

TradingView lightweight chart

AGUA.MX price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $13.20Periodo -55.6%
Fair value: $13.27

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-5.8%

FCF CAGR

+44.3%

FCF margin

9.5%

FCF / Net income

79.33x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $10.69B · net income $12.8M · FCF $1.02B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

41.7%-0.9% pts

Operating margin

6.3%-6.1% pts

Net margin

0.1%-5.9% pts

FCF margin

9.5%+6.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$10.69B$10.69B$11.20B$12.15B$12.77B
Net Income$12.8M$12.8M$51.6M$323.7M$768.9M
EBITDA$1.23B$1.23B$1.33B$1.37B$1.73B
EPS0.030.030.110.681.62
Gross Margin41.7%41.7%43.0%45.7%42.6%
Operating Margin6.3%6.3%6.2%13.1%12.4%
Net Margin0.1%0.1%0.5%2.7%6.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.910.910.800.710.67
Current Ratio1.691.69———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$1.02B$1.02B$153.7M$681.1M$339.0M
Returns
ROE0.2%0.2%0.8%5.4%12.2%
Valuation
P/E63.1963.19140.8243.7119.64
EV/EBITDA8.748.749.0812.8810.82
P/B1.141.141.122.362.40
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-4.5%-4.5%-7.8%-4.9%—
EPS Growth-72.7%-72.7%-83.8%-58.0%—
Dividend Yield2.8%2.8%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

239.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.18

Spread vs growth

-312.6%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

116.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.42

Spread vs growth

-189.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

54.3%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.29

Spread vs growth

-127.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +1.9%

Total return

+1.9%

Start / end P/E

121.2x → 440.0x

EPS bridge

0.11 → 0.03

Residual

-191.3%

EPS growth-72.7%
Multiple rerating+263.1%
Dividend+2.8%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-191.3%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.