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APEI$51.31+3.72%
Fair $51.31+0.0%

APEI

American Public Education, Inc.

Consumer Defensive / Education & Training ServicesNasdaqGS

$51.31

+1.84 (+3.72%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $51.31Fund rank 31/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 57/C
F-Score: 8/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $31.6M · quality 60.3/100

Data gap 31/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 53/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

57/100

C

Piotroski

8/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 19Warnings: 0unknown: 19
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · APEILocal privado en este navegador · American Public Education, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$941M

P/E

26.6x

↑

EV/EBITDA

14.8x

↑

ROE

10.7%

↑

Gross Margin

54.2%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.55

↑
52-Week Range$51
$26$62

TradingView lightweight chart

APEI price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $51.31Periodo +42.8%
Fair value: $51.31

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2007–2025 · 18 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+13.3%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

7.1%

FCF / Net income

1.46x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $648.9M · net income $31.6M · FCF $46.1M

2007-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

54.2%— pts

Operating margin

8.3%-13.0% pts

Net margin

4.9%-7.8% pts

FCF margin

7.1%— pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
Income Statement
Revenue$648.9M$648.9M$624.6M$600.5M$606.3M$418.8M$321.8M$286.3M$297.7M$299.2M$313.1M—————$198.2M$149.0M$107.1M$69.1M
Net Income$31.6M$31.6M$16.1M$-47.3M$-115.0M$17.8M$18.8M$10.0M$25.6M$21.1M$24.2M$32.4M$40.9M$42.0M$42.3M$40.8M$29.9M$23.9M$16.2M$8.8M
EBITDA$64.1M$64.1M$52.4M$-20.5M$-101.4M$48.2M$37.7M$28.4M$50.0M$53.6M$57.7M$72.8M$82.0M$80.9M$79.9M$72.1M$56.5M$45.1M$29.9M$17.5M
EPS1.401.400.55-2.94-6.100.971.250.621.541.291.491.932.332.352.352.231.591.270.860.64
Gross Margin54.2%54.2%52.7%51.2%52.4%———————————————
Operating Margin8.3%8.3%6.2%3.1%1.8%7.3%7.7%4.5%10.9%11.6%12.2%—————25.2%26.8%24.0%21.3%
Net Margin4.9%4.9%2.6%-7.9%-19.0%4.2%5.8%3.5%8.6%7.1%7.7%—————15.1%16.1%15.1%12.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.550.550.660.700.600.370.00—————————————
Current Ratio2.982.98——————————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$46.1M$46.1M$27.8M$31.6M$12.8M$4.4M$39.9M$31.1M$34.7M$33.1M$39.6M$31.0M—$38.8M$17.9M$45.5M$24.6M$26.0M——
Returns
ROE10.7%10.7%5.3%-16.2%-32.9%4.3%6.1%3.4%8.0%7.3%9.1%13.7%17.5%20.3%24.7%30.5%30.7%29.2%30.3%26.1%
Valuation
P/E26.5926.5938.56—————————————————
EV/EBITDA14.7714.778.66—————————————————
P/B3.253.251.270.650.72———————————————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth3.9%3.9%4.0%-1.0%—30.1%12.4%-3.8%-0.5%-4.4%——————33.0%39.1%55.1%—
EPS Growth154.5%154.5%118.7%51.8%—-22.4%101.6%-59.7%19.4%-13.4%-22.8%-17.2%-0.9%0.0%5.4%40.3%25.2%47.7%34.4%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

48.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$4.55

Spread vs growth

106.4%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

31.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$5.51

Spread vs growth

123.0%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

20.3%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$8.87

Spread vs growth

134.3%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +74.2%

Total return

+74.2%

Start / end P/E

53.5x → 36.7x

EPS bridge

0.55 → 1.40

Residual

-48.8%

EPS growth+154.5%
Multiple rerating-31.6%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-48.8%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.