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APZ.AX$4.50-0.88%
Fair $4.50+0.0%

APZ.AX

Aspen Group

Real Estate / Real Estate - DiversifiedASX

$4.50

-0.04 (-0.88%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $4.50Fund rank 35/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 47/C
F-Score: 3/9

Book/ROE base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · P/B n/d

Book/ROE base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 100% · confianza 20%

Book/ROE escenarios

weak_data · book/share n/d · quality 62.0/100

Data gap 35/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 82/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

47/100

C

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific NAV/AFFO model required: REIT/real-estate targets are disabled until FFO/AFFO/NAV/cap-rate data exists. REIT NAV/AFFO valuation requires positive AFFO/share history or TTM AFFO/share; generic FCF remains disabled.
Thesis & Journal · APZ.AXLocal privado en este navegador · Aspen Group
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.0B

P/E

16.1x

↑

EV/EBITDA

14.1x

↑

ROE

11.1%

↑

Gross Margin

61.8%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.46

↓
52-Week Range$5
$4$6

TradingView lightweight chart

APZ.AX price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $4.500Periodo -96.1%
Fair value: $4.500

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2021–2024 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+37.5%

FCF CAGR

+31.7%

FCF margin

32.0%

FCF / Net income

0.60x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $91.1M · net income $48.4M · FCF $29.1M

2021-FY → 2024-FY

Gross margin

61.8%-5.4% pts

Operating margin

29.6%+5.2% pts

Net margin

53.2%-19.2% pts

FCF margin

32.0%-4.4% pts
MetricTTM
2024
2023
2022
2021
Income Statement
Revenue$91.1M$91.1M$65.7M$46.0M$35.1M
Net Income$48.4M$48.4M$54.4M$75.4M$25.4M
EBITDA$73.0M$73.0M$60.8M$75.6M$26.6M
EPS0.260.260.310.550.22
Gross Margin61.8%61.8%66.2%62.2%67.2%
Operating Margin29.6%29.6%31.3%23.5%24.3%
Net Margin53.2%53.2%82.8%163.8%72.4%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.460.460.470.550.53
Current Ratio0.460.46———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$29.1M$29.1M$16.5M$15.6M$12.7M
Returns
ROE11.1%11.1%14.9%26.8%16.2%
Valuation
P/E16.0716.075.572.735.87
EV/EBITDA14.1114.117.664.628.43
P/B1.911.910.830.730.95
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth38.8%38.8%42.7%31.2%—
EPS Growth-15.4%-15.4%-43.4%150.0%—
Dividend Yield2.4%2.4%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

15.2%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.40

Spread vs growth

-30.6%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

13.1%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.48

Spread vs growth

-28.5%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

11.5%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.78

Spread vs growth

-26.9%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +27.8%

Total return

+27.8%

Start / end P/E

11.6x → 17.2x

EPS bridge

0.31 → 0.26

Residual

-7.4%

EPS growth-15.4%
Multiple rerating+48.2%
Dividend+2.4%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-7.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.