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v0.1
ARA.MX$4.60-3.56%
Fair $4.60+0.0%

ARA.MX

Consorcio ARA, S. A. B. de C. V.

Consumer Cyclical / Residential ConstructionMexico

$4.60

-0.17 (-3.56%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $4.60Fund rank 28/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 68/B
F-Score: 7/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 21%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $265.9M · quality 48.0/100

Data gap 28/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 24/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

68/100

B

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · ARA.MXLocal privado en este navegador · Consorcio ARA, S. A. B. de C. V.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$5.6B

P/E

6.1x

↓

EV/EBITDA

5.0x

↓

ROE

5.6%

↑

Gross Margin

26.6%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.16

↓
52-Week Range$5
$3$5

TradingView lightweight chart

ARA.MX price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $4.600Periodo +18.3%
Fair value: $4.600

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+5.9%

FCF CAGR

+26.5%

FCF margin

4.5%

FCF / Net income

0.41x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $8.25B · net income $905.2M · FCF $370.7M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

26.6%+0.6% pts

Operating margin

9.6%-0.4% pts

Net margin

11.0%+1.7% pts

FCF margin

4.5%+1.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$8.25B$8.25B$7.12B$6.75B$6.96B
Net Income$905.2M$905.2M$685.7M$661.9M$644.5M
EBITDA$1.25B$1.25B$1.15B$1.16B$1.10B
EPS0.740.740.560.540.52
Gross Margin26.6%26.6%26.4%26.5%26.0%
Operating Margin9.6%9.6%10.4%10.8%10.0%
Net Margin11.0%11.0%9.6%9.8%9.3%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.160.160.170.170.16
Current Ratio4.084.08———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$370.7M$370.7M$265.9M$-286.9M$182.9M
Returns
ROE5.6%5.6%4.4%4.5%4.5%
Valuation
P/E6.056.055.366.677.02
EV/EBITDA4.964.963.524.023.41
P/B0.350.350.240.300.31
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth16.0%16.0%5.5%-3.0%—
EPS Growth32.1%32.1%3.7%3.8%—
Dividend Yield3.4%3.4%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-18.0%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.41

Spread vs growth

50.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-7.8%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.49

Spread vs growth

39.9%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

0.7%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.80

Spread vs growth

31.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +43.7%

Total return

+43.7%

Start / end P/E

5.9x → 6.2x

EPS bridge

0.56 → 0.74

Residual

+2.0%

EPS growth+32.1%
Multiple rerating+6.1%
Dividend+3.4%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+2.0%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.