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ARF.TA$10330.00+3.97%
Fair $10330.00+0.0%

ARF.TA

Ashdod Refinery Ltd

Energy / Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingTel Aviv

$10330.00

+394.00 (+3.97%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $10330.00Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 47/C
F-Score: 6/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 17%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $104.0M · quality 40.3/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 15/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

47/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is 0.6%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · ARF.TALocal privado en este navegador · Ashdod Refinery Ltd
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.3B

P/E

175.1x

↑

EV/EBITDA

1241.2x

↑

ROE

0.6%

↓

Gross Margin

2.0%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.65

↑
52-Week Range$10330
$5021$11070

TradingView lightweight chart

ARF.TA price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $10,330Periodo -6.0%
Fair value: $10,330

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-10.3%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

3.4%

FCF / Net income

34.67x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.03B · net income $3.0M · FCF $104.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

2.0%-0.5% pts

Operating margin

2.4%+0.4% pts

Net margin

0.1%-1.1% pts

FCF margin

3.4%+9.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$3.03B$3.03B$3.22B$3.77B$4.19B
Net Income$3.0M$3.0M$-34.0M$116.0M$52.0M
EBITDA$104.0M$104.0M$64.0M$256.0M$152.0M
EPS0.200.20-2.709.904.16
Gross Margin2.0%2.0%1.1%5.7%2.6%
Operating Margin2.4%2.4%0.2%5.1%2.0%
Net Margin0.1%0.1%-1.1%3.1%1.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.650.650.650.420.54
Current Ratio0.960.96———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$104.0M$104.0M$84.0M$260.0M$-241.0M
Returns
ROE0.6%0.6%-7.1%20.5%11.6%
Valuation
P/E175.08175.08—939.19—
EV/EBITDA1241.191241.191052.62453.84—
P/B270.57270.57141.42205.61—
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-5.8%-5.8%-14.8%-10.0%—
EPS Growth107.4%107.4%-127.3%137.9%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

1561.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$916.62

Spread vs growth

-1453.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

460.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1109.10

Spread vs growth

-353.4%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

148.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1786.22

Spread vs growth

-41.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +84.3%

Total return

+84.3%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-2.70 → 0.20

Residual

+84.3%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+84.3%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.