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v0.1
ARI$11.04+1.14%
Fair $11.04+0.0%

ARI

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.

Real Estate / REIT - MortgageNYSE

$11.04

+0.13 (+1.14%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $11.04Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 33/D
F-Score: 6/9
High Debt

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 100% · confianza 20%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF n/d · quality 27.0/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 55/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

33/100

D

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 16Warnings: 1unknown: 16
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific NAV/AFFO model required: REIT/real-estate targets are disabled until FFO/AFFO/NAV/cap-rate data exists. REIT NAV/AFFO valuation requires positive AFFO/share history or TTM AFFO/share; generic FCF remains disabled. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 4.27, above the 2.0 threshold
Thesis & Journal · ARILocal privado en este navegador · Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.4B

P/E

13.6x

↑

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

6.8%

↑

Gross Margin

N/A

•

Debt/Equity

4.27

↑
52-Week Range$11
$9$11

TradingView lightweight chart

ARI price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $10.92Periodo -41.0%
Fair value: $11.04

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2010–2025 · 15 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

—

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

15.5%

FCF / Net income

0.33x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $272.8M · net income $126.7M · FCF $42.3M

2010-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

—— pts

Operating margin

—— pts

Net margin

46.4%— pts

FCF margin

15.5%— pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
Income Statement
Revenue$272.8M$272.8M$195.7M$266.0M$368.8M$284.5M$278.7M$334.5M—————————
Net Income$126.7M$126.7M$-119.6M$58.1M$265.2M$223.5M$18.4M$230.2M$220.0M$193.0M$157.9M$103.3M$82.7M$52.5M$40.2M$25.9M$11.0M
EPS0.810.81-0.970.291.681.460.011.401.481.541.74——————
Net Margin46.4%46.4%-61.1%21.9%71.9%78.6%6.6%68.8%—————————
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity4.274.273.413.152.96—————————0.41——
Current Ratio6.726.72———————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$42.3M$42.3M$30.8M$201.2M$234.7M————————————
Returns
ROE6.8%6.8%-6.4%2.6%11.3%9.7%0.8%8.8%8.8%9.2%8.2%7.5%9.7%7.7%7.3%7.7%3.7%
Valuation
P/E13.6413.64—39.696.67————————————
P/B0.830.830.670.740.79————————————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth39.4%39.4%-26.4%-27.9%—2.1%-16.7%——————————
EPS Growth183.5%183.5%-434.5%-82.7%—14500.0%-99.3%-5.4%-3.9%-11.5%———————
Dividend Yield9.2%9.2%———————————————

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

6.6%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.98

Spread vs growth

176.9%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

7.9%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.19

Spread vs growth

175.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

9.0%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.91

Spread vs growth

174.5%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +22.7%

Total return

+22.7%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.97 → 0.81

Residual

+13.5%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+9.2%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+13.5%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.