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ASPN$6.05-2.65%
Fair $6.05+0.0%

ASPN

Aspen Aerogels, Inc.

Industrials / Building Products & EquipmentNYSE

$6.05

-0.16 (-2.65%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $6.05Fund rank 28/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 35/D
F-Score: 3/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-40.7M · quality 51.0/100

Data gap 28/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 19/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

35/100

D

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 14Warnings: 1unknown: 14
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is -1.7%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · ASPNLocal privado en este navegador · Aspen Aerogels, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$502M

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

-165.4%

↓

Gross Margin

17.0%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.61

↑
52-Week Range$6
$2$10

TradingView lightweight chart

ASPN price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $6.055Periodo -43.7%
Fair value: $6.055

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2012–2025 · 13 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+11.8%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-1.7%

FCF / Net income

0.01x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $271.1M · net income $-389.6M · FCF $-4.6M

2012-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

17.0%+29.5% pts

Operating margin

-19.0%+33.0% pts

Net margin

-143.7%-55.2% pts

FCF margin

-1.7%— pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
Income Statement
Revenue$271.1M$271.1M$452.7M$238.7M$180.4M$121.6M$100.3M$139.4M$104.4M$111.6M$117.7M$122.5M$102.4M$86.1M$63.5M
Net Income$-389.6M$-389.6M$13.4M$-45.8M$-82.7M$-37.1M$-21.8M$-14.6M$-34.4M$-19.3M$-12.0M$-6.4M$-66.3M$-47.6M$-56.1M
EBITDA$-331.3M$-331.3M$49.6M$-25.2M$-68.4M——$-3.9M$-23.1M$-8.4M$-1.4M$3.7M$-5.9M$-9.9M$-23.3M
EPS-4.73-4.730.17-0.66-2.10-1.22-0.83————-0.28-5.37410.56-2851.08
Gross Margin17.0%17.0%40.4%23.8%2.8%8.2%14.6%18.9%12.1%16.7%19.8%20.1%16.7%12.5%-12.6%
Operating Margin-19.0%-19.0%12.8%-20.6%-43.9%-33.4%-21.5%-10.2%-32.5%-17.1%-9.5%-5.1%-15.7%-23.2%-52.0%
Net Margin-143.7%-143.7%3.0%-19.2%-45.9%-30.5%-21.7%-10.5%-33.0%-17.3%-10.2%-5.2%-64.8%-55.3%-88.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.610.610.320.280.27—0.03————————
Current Ratio2.892.89—————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-4.6M$-4.6M$-40.7M$-218.1M$-272.4M$-32.4M$-13.3M$-3.2M$-12.2M$-10.7M$-13.8M————
Returns
ROE-165.4%-165.4%2.2%-9.4%-18.5%-28.9%-32.1%-24.7%-49.0%-19.1%-10.4%-5.2%-53.6%76.8%46.5%
Valuation
P/E——76.59————————————
EV/EBITDA——20.62————————————
P/B2.122.121.702.060.98——————————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-40.1%-40.1%89.6%32.4%—21.3%-28.1%33.6%-6.5%-5.2%-3.9%19.6%18.9%35.7%—
EPS Growth-2882.4%-2882.4%125.8%68.6%—-47.0%—————94.8%-101.3%114.4%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +6.4%

Total return

+6.4%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.17 → -4.73

Residual

+6.4%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+6.4%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.