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AVG.AX$0.07-5.13%
Fair $0.07+0.0%

AVG.AX

Australian Vintage Ltd

Consumer Defensive / Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesASX

$0.07

-0.00 (-5.13%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $0.07Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 23/D
F-Score: 3/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-18.8M · quality 46.7/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 25/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

23/100

D

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is -5.0%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · AVG.AXLocal privado en este navegador · Australian Vintage Ltd
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$24M

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

37.2x

↑

ROE

-5.0%

↓

Gross Margin

25.5%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.74

↑
52-Week Range$0
$0$0

TradingView lightweight chart

AVG.AX price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $0.074Periodo -98.2%
Fair value: $0.074

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-0.4%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-5.7%

FCF / Net income

1.53x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $257.2M · net income $-9.6M · FCF $-14.7M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

25.5%-6.7% pts

Operating margin

-6.0%-12.1% pts

Net margin

-3.7%-10.4% pts

FCF margin

-5.7%-7.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$257.2M$257.2M$260.6M$258.6M$260.1M
Net Income$-9.6M$-9.6M$-93.0M$4.0M$17.3M
EBITDA$4.2M$4.2M$-71.1M$12.4M$35.4M
EPS-0.03-0.03-0.360.010.06
Gross Margin25.5%25.5%10.6%24.2%32.3%
Operating Margin-6.0%-6.0%-17.8%-4.8%6.1%
Net Margin-3.7%-3.7%-35.7%1.6%6.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.740.740.640.440.42
Current Ratio2.932.93———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-14.7M$-14.7M$-18.8M$-23.5M$4.0M
Returns
ROE-5.0%-5.0%-43.6%1.4%5.8%
Valuation
P/E———29.9910.71
EV/EBITDA37.2137.21—19.648.74
P/B0.130.130.200.420.62
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-1.3%-1.3%0.8%-0.6%—
EPS Growth92.1%92.1%-2616.2%-76.8%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -14.0%

Total return

-14.0%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.36 → -0.03

Residual

-14.0%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-14.0%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.