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BAER$2.22-5.13%
Fair $2.22+0.0%

BAER

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.

Industrials / Security & Protection ServicesNasdaqGM

$2.22

-0.12 (-5.13%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $2.22Fund rank 20/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 35/D
F-Score: 7/9
High Debt

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 35% · confianza 12%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-47.9M · quality 29.3/100

Data gap 20/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 23/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

35/100

D

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 3.79, above the 2.0 threshold
Thesis & Journal · BAERLocal privado en este navegador · Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$128M

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

7.9x

↓

ROE

6.4%

↑

Gross Margin

42.1%

↑

Debt/Equity

3.79

↑
52-Week Range$2
$1$3

TradingView lightweight chart

BAER price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $2.220Periodo -77.1%
Fair value: $2.220

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+38.3%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-53.4%

FCF / Net income

-15.83x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $122.8M · net income $4.1M · FCF $-65.5M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

42.1%+15.1% pts

Operating margin

12.5%+61.3% pts

Net margin

3.4%+94.2% pts

FCF margin

-53.4%+44.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$122.8M$122.8M$98.6M$66.7M$46.4M
Net Income$4.1M$4.1M$-15.6M$-77.4M$-42.1M
EBITDA$42.7M$42.7M$24.8M$-43.4M$-13.0M
EPS——-0.810.11-7.55
Gross Margin42.1%42.1%41.7%38.0%27.0%
Operating Margin12.5%12.5%5.4%-86.2%-48.8%
Net Margin3.4%3.4%-15.8%-116.0%-90.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity3.793.793.977.972.77
Current Ratio0.900.90———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-65.5M$-65.5M$4.1M$-47.9M$-45.3M
Returns
ROE6.4%6.4%-29.1%-287.2%-55.9%
Valuation
P/E———58.27—
EV/EBITDA7.917.9111.25——
P/B1.921.921.9818.785.87
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth24.6%24.6%47.8%43.8%—
EPS Growth——-836.4%101.5%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +34.5%

Total return

+34.5%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.81 → n/d

Residual

+34.5%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+34.5%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.