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BGA.AX$5.46-1.09%
Fair $5.46+0.0%

BGA.AX

Bega Cheese Limited

Consumer Defensive / Packaged FoodsASX

$5.46

-0.06 (-1.09%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $5.46Fund rank 30/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 30/D
F-Score: 2/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 32% · confianza 24%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $59.7M · quality 50.3/100

Data gap 30/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 35/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

30/100

D

Piotroski

2/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is -0.9%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · BGA.AXLocal privado en este navegador · Bega Cheese Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.7B

P/E

182.0x

↑

EV/EBITDA

18.4x

↑

ROE

-0.9%

↓

Gross Margin

20.9%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.45

↑
52-Week Range$5
$5$7

TradingView lightweight chart

BGA.AX price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $5.460Periodo +208.4%
Fair value: $5.460

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+5.6%

FCF CAGR

-6.5%

FCF margin

2.0%

FCF / Net income

-8.31x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.55B · net income $-8.5M · FCF $70.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

20.9%-2.2% pts

Operating margin

-0.6%+0.1% pts

Net margin

-0.2%-1.0% pts

FCF margin

2.0%-0.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$3.55B$3.55B$3.53B$3.39B$3.02B
Net Income$-8.5M$-8.5M$30.5M$-229.9M$24.2M
EBITDA$107.9M$107.9M$151.8M$-136.0M$146.0M
EPS-0.03-0.030.10-0.760.08
Gross Margin20.9%20.9%20.1%19.7%23.1%
Operating Margin-0.6%-0.6%-1.0%-2.4%-0.7%
Net Margin-0.2%-0.2%0.9%-6.8%0.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.450.450.410.470.33
Current Ratio1.281.28———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$70.6M$70.6M$59.7M$-59.9M$86.4M
Returns
ROE-0.9%-0.9%3.0%-22.9%1.9%
Valuation
P/E182.00182.0043.13—46.38
EV/EBITDA18.3918.3910.99—10.29
P/B1.701.701.300.910.89
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth0.5%0.5%4.3%12.2%—
EPS Growth-128.3%-128.3%113.1%-1045.0%—
Dividend Yield2.6%2.6%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -0.6%

Total return

-0.6%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.10 → -0.03

Residual

-3.2%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+2.6%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-3.2%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.