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BIRD.JK$1575.00+1.29%
Fair $1575.00+0.0%

BIRD.JK

PT Blue Bird Tbk

Industrials / RailroadsJakarta

$1575.00

+20.00 (+1.29%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1575.00Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 51/C
F-Score: 2/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 20%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-310.4B · quality 52.0/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 21/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

51/100

C

Piotroski

2/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · BIRD.JKLocal privado en este navegador · PT Blue Bird Tbk
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.94T

P/E

6.3x

↓

EV/EBITDA

5.1x

↓

ROE

10.2%

↑

Gross Margin

31.8%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.37

↑
52-Week Range$1575
$1500$2050

TradingView lightweight chart

BIRD.JK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,575Periodo -78.9%
Fair value: $1,575

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+16.7%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-14.8%

FCF / Net income

-1.33x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $5.71T · net income $635.84B · FCF $-843.07B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

31.8%+1.9% pts

Operating margin

12.6%+0.5% pts

Net margin

11.1%+1.2% pts

FCF margin

-14.8%-13.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$5705.31B$5705.31B$5039.95B$4422.47B$3590.10B
Net Income$635.84B$635.84B$585.20B$452.97B$358.35B
EBITDA$963.96B$963.96B$858.09B$683.04B$563.40B
EPS254.00254.00234.00181.00143.00
Gross Margin31.8%31.8%32.3%31.7%29.9%
Operating Margin12.6%12.6%13.1%12.6%12.1%
Net Margin11.1%11.1%11.6%10.2%10.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.370.370.230.190.13
Current Ratio1.551.55———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-843.07B$-843.07B$-310.35B$-302.59B$-30.44B
Returns
ROE10.2%10.2%10.0%8.2%6.8%
Valuation
P/E6.306.306.739.949.69
EV/EBITDA5.055.054.836.655.78
P/B0.630.630.670.820.66
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth13.2%13.2%14.0%23.2%—
EPS Growth8.5%8.5%29.3%26.6%—
Dividend Yield7.3%7.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-18.1%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$139.76

Spread vs growth

26.6%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-7.8%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$169.10

Spread vs growth

16.4%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

0.7%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$272.34

Spread vs growth

7.8%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -8.5%

Total return

-8.5%

Start / end P/E

8.0x → 6.2x

EPS bridge

234.00 → 254.00

Residual

-1.9%

EPS growth+8.5%
Multiple rerating-22.4%
Dividend+7.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-1.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.