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v0.1
CDNA$22.80-0.09%
Fair $22.80+0.0%

CDNA

CareDx, Inc.

Healthcare / Diagnostics & ResearchNasdaqGM

$22.80

-0.02 (-0.09%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $22.80Fund rank 27/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 48/C
F-Score: 4/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $31.6M · quality 48.3/100

Data gap 27/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 18/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

48/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 14Warnings: 1unknown: 14
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is -7.0%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · CDNALocal privado en este navegador · CareDx, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.2B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

-7.0%

↓

Gross Margin

67.6%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.09

↓
52-Week Range$23
$11$23

TradingView lightweight chart

CDNA price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $22.80Periodo +151.9%
Fair value: $22.80

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2012–2025 · 13 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+25.2%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

9.3%

FCF / Net income

-1.66x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $379.8M · net income $-21.4M · FCF $35.4M

2012-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

67.6%— pts

Operating margin

-6.6%+4.9% pts

Net margin

-5.6%+19.1% pts

FCF margin

9.3%— pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
Income Statement
Revenue$379.8M$379.8M$333.8M$280.3M$321.8M$296.4M$192.2M$127.1M$76.6M$48.3M$40.6M$28.1M$27.3M$22.1M$20.5M
Net Income$-21.4M$-21.4M$52.5M$-190.3M$-76.6M$-30.7M$-18.7M$-22.0M$-46.8M$-55.5M$-39.5M$-13.7M$781000.00$-3.5M$-5.1M
EBITDA$-4.7M$-4.7M$-35.8M$-87.2M$-61.2M$-20.9M$-15.5M$-19.0M$-11.4M$-16.6M$-34.4M$-11.1M$1.8M$-194000.00$-1.3M
EPS-0.40-0.400.93-3.54-1.44-0.59-0.40-0.52-1.31-2.38-2.39-1.160.10-3.50-5.01
Gross Margin67.6%67.6%67.1%63.6%65.1%——64.2%56.9%55.8%—————
Operating Margin-6.6%-6.6%-16.6%-38.2%-24.0%-10.0%-11.7%-19.3%-20.3%-42.0%-91.9%-42.4%4.6%-3.9%-11.5%
Net Margin-5.6%-5.6%15.7%-67.9%-23.8%-10.3%-9.7%-17.3%-61.1%-114.8%-97.1%-48.7%2.9%-16.0%-24.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.090.090.070.130.09—0.000.000.00-2.990.060.440.13-0.07—
Current Ratio3.403.40—————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$35.4M$35.4M$31.6M$-27.6M$-49.6M———$-6.0M$-14.5M$-17.1M————
Returns
ROE-7.0%-7.0%13.9%-72.8%-17.8%-6.6%-6.7%-22.2%-48.7%904.3%-202.6%-46.5%1.9%2.4%3.4%
Valuation
P/E——24.01————————————
P/B4.014.013.342.321.39——————————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth13.8%13.8%19.1%-12.9%—54.2%51.3%66.0%58.4%18.9%44.4%3.1%23.6%8.1%—
EPS Growth-143.0%-143.0%126.3%-145.8%—-47.5%23.1%60.3%45.0%0.4%-106.0%-1260.0%102.9%30.1%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +34.2%

Total return

+34.2%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.93 → -0.40

Residual

+34.2%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+34.2%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.