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CELHA.IS$19.50+6.67%
Fair $19.50+0.0%

CELHA.IS

Çelik Halat ve Tel Sanayii A.S.

Industrials / Metal FabricationIstanbul

$19.50

+1.22 (+6.67%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $19.50Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 45/C
F-Score: 3/9
Declining RevenueMargin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-251.7M · quality 51.7/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 13/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

45/100

C

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 3unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is -4.2%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · CELHA.ISLocal privado en este navegador · Çelik Halat ve Tel Sanayii A.S.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$7.5B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

12.5x

↑

ROE

-4.2%

↓

Gross Margin

6.9%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.14

↓
52-Week Range$20
$7$21

TradingView lightweight chart

CELHA.IS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $19.50Periodo +24.3%
Fair value: $19.50

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2021–2024 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+33.6%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

0.9%

FCF / Net income

-0.11x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.62B · net income $-128.3M · FCF $13.9M

2021-FY → 2024-FY

Gross margin

6.9%-9.9% pts

Operating margin

-13.6%-22.0% pts

Net margin

-7.9%-9.1% pts

FCF margin

0.9%+10.6% pts
MetricTTM
2024
2023
2022
2021
Income Statement
Revenue$1.62B$1.62B$2.42B$2.73B$677.6M
Net Income$-128.3M$-128.3M$52.9M$-53.3M$7.6M
EBITDA$160.2M$160.2M$328.6M$130.0M$33.1M
EPS-0.55-0.550.23-0.230.04
Gross Margin6.9%6.9%10.9%12.4%16.8%
Operating Margin-13.6%-13.6%1.5%4.7%8.4%
Net Margin-7.9%-7.9%2.2%-2.0%1.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.140.141.859.554.10
Current Ratio1.051.05———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$13.9M$13.9M$-590.0M$-251.7M$-66.2M
Returns
ROE-4.2%-4.2%15.8%-193.6%14.7%
Valuation
P/E——98.57—107.13
EV/EBITDA12.5412.547.4212.3413.09
P/B0.530.535.5850.525.78
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-33.2%-33.2%-11.5%303.4%—
EPS Growth-337.7%-337.7%199.2%-709.5%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +0.7%

Total return

+0.7%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.23 → -0.55

Residual

+0.7%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+0.7%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.