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v0.1
CGNX$64.64-1.84%
Fair $36.83-43.0%

CGNX

Cognex Corporation

Technology / Scientific & Technical InstrumentsNasdaqGS

$64.64

-1.21 (-1.84%)

Modestly Overvalued-43.0%Fair Value $36.83Fund rank 37/100 · PassSEC 18/18 yrs|
SA 64/B
F-Score: 6/9
Significantly Overvalued

FCF base 3Y

$13.11

-41.2% CAGR · yield 6.3%

FCF base 5Y

$13.35

-27.1% base · -25.7% expected

Precio de entrada

$6.20

MOS 18% · confianza 87%

FCF escenarios

audited · normalized FCF $134.0M · quality 77.7/100

Pass 37/100
Bear 5Y$7.17-35.6%
Base 5Y$13.35-27.1%
Bull 5Y$24.53-17.6%
Return 0/100Downside 0/100Model quality 73/100Data QA 100/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

64/100

B

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

7/100

-43.0% upside

5Y CAGR

-25.7%

0/100

Data QA

100/100

SEC 100%

Latest source: sec-companyfactsPeriods: 18Warnings: 1sec-companyfacts: 18
Estimated downside of 43.0% from current price
Thesis & Journal · CGNXLocal privado en este navegador · Cognex Corporation
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$10.8B

P/E

97.2x

↑

EV/EBITDA

55.7x

↑

ROE

7.7%

↑

Gross Margin

66.9%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.05

↓
52-Week Range$65
$29$72
EV/EBITDA Historical55.7x

TradingView lightweight chart

CGNX price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $64.64Periodo +598.2%
Buy zone: $6.200Bear 5Y: $7.170Fair value: $36.83Base 5Y: $13.35Bull 5Y: $24.53

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2008–2025 · 17 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+8.7%

FCF CAGR

+9.2%

FCF margin

23.8%

FCF / Net income

2.07x

Latest source

SEC-backed

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $994.4M · net income $114.4M · FCF $236.8M

2008-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

66.9%-4.9% pts

Operating margin

16.3%+6.0% pts

Net margin

11.5%+0.3% pts

FCF margin

23.8%+2.0% pts
SEC-backed annual metrics active for 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008. Local SEC Companyfacts override Yahoo/FMP for audited annual line items; provider-only fields remain as fallback.
MetricTTM
2025SEC
2024SEC
2023SEC
2022SEC
2021SEC
2020SEC
2019SEC
2018SEC
2017SEC
2016SEC
2015SEC
2014SEC
2013SEC
2012SEC
2011SEC
2010SEC
2009SEC
2008SEC
Income Statement
Revenue$994.4M$994.4M$914.5M$837.5M$1.01B$1.04B$811.0M$725.6M$806.3M$766.1M$529.5M$450.6M$426.4M$307.7M$324.3M$321.9M$290.7M$175.7M$242.7M
Net Income$114.4M$114.4M$106.2M$113.2M$215.5M$279.9M$176.2M$203.9M$219.3M$176.7M$143.7M$187.1M$121.5M$73.6M$68.1M$69.9M$61.4M$-4.9M$27.3M
EBITDA$193.4M$193.4M$147.8M$144.6M$288.3M———————$140.3M$88.0M$94.3M$95.1M$85.5M$-2.1M—
EPS0.680.680.620.651.231.561.001.161.240.980.831.061.360.830.780.821.52-0.120.66
Gross Margin66.9%66.9%68.4%71.8%71.8%73.3%74.5%73.8%74.4%75.6%75.2%77.2%77.9%79.6%75.5%75.8%73.3%67.9%71.8%
Operating Margin16.3%16.3%12.6%15.6%24.5%30.4%21.0%19.7%27.4%33.8%29.1%27.0%30.0%25.0%25.7%26.5%26.0%-7.2%10.3%
Net Margin11.5%11.5%11.6%13.5%21.4%27.0%21.7%28.1%27.2%23.1%27.1%41.5%28.5%23.9%21.0%21.7%21.1%-2.8%11.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.050.050.050.050.03——————————————
Current Ratio3.643.64—————————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$236.8M$236.8M$134.0M$89.8M$223.7M$298.6M$229.1M$231.6M$186.4M$195.6M$169.3M$110.1M$142.9M$85.8M$91.3M$78.5M$70.5M$6.8M$52.9M
Returns
ROE7.7%7.7%7.0%7.5%15.0%19.6%14.0%15.0%19.3%16.1%14.9%22.5%16.5%11.4%11.9%12.6%13.0%-1.2%6.6%
Valuation
P/E97.1997.19106.60101.6853.7342.3766.0956.9753.3067.4479.6362.3548.6079.6384.7380.6043.48—100.14
EV/EBITDA55.6655.6641.5644.5429.76——————————————
P/B7.507.507.527.628.038.319.258.5410.3310.8311.9513.977.999.1210.0810.225.636.646.65
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth8.7%8.7%9.2%-16.8%-3.0%27.9%11.8%-10.0%5.3%44.7%17.5%5.7%38.6%-5.1%0.7%10.7%65.4%-27.6%—
EPS Growth9.7%9.7%-4.6%-47.2%-21.2%56.0%-13.8%-6.5%26.5%18.1%-21.7%-22.1%63.9%6.4%-4.9%-46.1%1366.7%-118.2%—
Dividend Yield0.5%0.5%—————————————————

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

103.6%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$5.74

Spread vs growth

-93.9%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

59.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$6.94

Spread vs growth

-49.5%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

32.3%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$11.18

Spread vs growth

-22.6%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +116.2%

Total return

+116.2%

Start / end P/E

48.3x → 95.1x

EPS bridge

0.62 → 0.68

Residual

+9.4%

EPS growth+9.7%
Multiple rerating+96.7%
Dividend+0.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+9.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.

29.8x55.7x
EV/EBITDA vs Sector55.7x
6.5xmed 13.1x83.5x