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COP$115.78+1.58%
Fair $115.78+0.0%

COP

ConocoPhillips

Energy / Oil & Gas E&PNYSE

$115.78

+1.80 (+1.58%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $115.78Fund rank 35/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 40/C
F-Score: 5/9
Margin Compression

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $8.0B · quality 74.3/100

Data gap 35/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 71/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

40/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 19Warnings: 1unknown: 19
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · COPLocal privado en este navegador · ConocoPhillips
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$141.1B

P/E

19.6x

↑

EV/EBITDA

6.3x

↓

ROE

12.4%

↑

Gross Margin

25.1%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.36

↑
52-Week Range$116
$85$136

TradingView lightweight chart

COP price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $115.78Periodo +570.4%
Fair value: $115.78

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2007–2025 · 18 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-6.2%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

12.3%

FCF / Net income

0.91x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $58.94B · net income $7.99B · FCF $7.24B

2007-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

25.1%— pts

Operating margin

19.2%— pts

Net margin

13.6%+7.2% pts

FCF margin

12.3%— pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
Income Statement
Revenue$58.94B$58.94B$54.74B$56.14B$78.49B$34.59B$13.66B$32.57B$36.42B$29.11B$23.69B$29.56B$52.52B$54.41B$57.97B$64.20B$56.22B$149.34B$240.84B$187.44B
Net Income$7.99B$7.99B$9.24B$10.96B$18.68B$8.08B$-2.70B$7.19B$6.26B$-855.0M$-3.62B$-4.43B$6.87B$9.16B$8.43B$12.44B$11.36B$4.41B$-16.35B$11.89B
EBITDA$25.57B$25.57B$24.43B$25.78B$37.13B———————————————
EPS6.356.357.819.0614.576.07-2.516.405.36-0.70-2.91-3.585.517.386.728.977.622.24-8.185.50
Gross Margin25.1%25.1%29.9%32.4%38.2%———————————————
Operating Margin19.2%19.2%23.4%26.8%32.4%———————————————
Net Margin13.6%13.6%16.9%19.5%23.8%23.4%-19.8%22.1%17.2%-2.9%-15.3%-15.0%13.1%16.8%14.5%19.4%20.2%3.0%-6.8%6.3%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.360.360.380.380.35———0.510.73——————————
Current Ratio1.291.29——————————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$7.24B$7.24B$8.01B$8.72B$18.16B———————————————
Returns
ROE12.4%12.4%14.3%22.2%38.9%17.8%-9.0%20.6%19.6%-2.8%-10.3%-11.1%13.2%17.6%17.6%19.1%16.6%7.1%-29.6%—
Valuation
P/E19.6219.6212.9412.868.11———————————————
EV/EBITDA6.346.345.655.974.34———————————————
P/B2.252.251.842.853.15———————————————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth7.7%7.7%-2.5%-28.5%—153.2%-58.0%-10.6%25.1%22.8%-19.9%-43.7%-3.5%-6.1%-9.7%14.2%-62.4%-38.0%28.5%—
EPS Growth-18.7%-18.7%-13.8%-37.8%—341.8%-139.2%19.4%865.7%75.9%18.7%-165.0%-25.3%9.8%-25.1%17.7%240.0%127.4%-248.6%—
Dividend Yield2.9%2.9%——————————————————

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

17.4%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$10.27

Spread vs growth

-36.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

14.4%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$12.43

Spread vs growth

-33.1%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

12.2%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$20.02

Spread vs growth

-30.9%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +38.6%

Total return

+38.6%

Start / end P/E

10.9x → 18.2x

EPS bridge

7.81 → 6.35

Residual

-12.5%

EPS growth-18.7%
Multiple rerating+66.8%
Dividend+2.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-12.5%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.