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v0.1
CRNC$10.62-1.67%
Fair $10.62+0.0%

CRNC

Cerence Inc.

Technology / Software - ApplicationNasdaqGS

$10.62

-0.18 (-1.67%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $10.62Fund rank 21/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 27/D
F-Score: 5/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 20%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $12.2M · quality 27.0/100

Data gap 21/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 16/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

27/100

D

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 8Warnings: 1unknown: 8
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is -12.4%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · CRNCLocal privado en este navegador · Cerence Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$480M

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

49.5x

↑

ROE

-12.4%

↓

Gross Margin

72.7%

↑

Debt/Equity

1.44

↑
52-Week Range$11
$6$14

TradingView lightweight chart

CRNC price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $10.62Periodo -58.4%
Fair value: $10.62

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2018–2025 · 7 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-1.4%

FCF CAGR

-11.3%

FCF margin

18.6%

FCF / Net income

-2.50x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $251.8M · net income $-18.7M · FCF $46.8M

2018-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

72.7%+2.7% pts

Operating margin

5.2%-8.1% pts

Net margin

-7.4%-9.6% pts

FCF margin

18.6%-20.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
Income Statement
Revenue$251.8M$251.8M$331.5M$294.5M$327.9M$387.2M$331.0M$303.3M$277.0M
Net Income$-18.7M$-18.7M$-588.1M$-56.3M$-310.8M$45.9M$-18.3M$100.3M$5.9M
EBITDA$12.0M$12.0M$-561.4M$-5.6M$-160.4M$90.3M$52.5M$39.7M$62.6M
EPS-0.43-0.43-14.12-1.40-7.931.17-0.502.760.16
Gross Margin72.7%72.7%73.7%67.7%70.4%73.9%67.4%67.2%70.0%
Operating Margin5.2%5.2%14.0%-5.2%11.7%15.7%6.8%3.6%13.3%
Net Margin-7.4%-7.4%-177.4%-19.1%-94.8%11.9%-5.5%33.1%2.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.441.442.090.420.400.260.28——
Current Ratio1.901.90———————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$46.8M$46.8M$12.2M$2.4M$-19.6M$62.3M$25.8M$83.6M$108.7M
Returns
ROE-12.4%-12.4%-416.8%-8.1%-43.6%4.4%-1.9%9.4%0.6%
Valuation
EV/EBITDA49.5149.51———————
P/B3.043.040.791.070.84————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-24.0%-24.0%12.6%-10.2%—17.0%9.1%9.5%—
EPS Growth97.0%97.0%-908.6%82.3%—334.0%-118.1%1625.0%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +18.1%

Total return

+18.1%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-14.12 → -0.43

Residual

+18.1%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+18.1%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.