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v0.1
CVNA$71.00-2.74%
Fair $71.00+0.0%

CVNA

Carvana Co.

Consumer Cyclical / Auto & Truck DealershipsNYSE

$71.00

-2.00 (-2.74%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $71.00Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 37/D
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $827.0M · quality 37.3/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 28/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

37/100

D

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 11Warnings: 0unknown: 11
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · CVNALocal privado en este navegador · Carvana Co.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$77.9B

P/E

41.0x

↑

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

40.9%

↑

Gross Margin

20.6%

↓

Debt/Equity

1.60

↑
52-Week Range$71
$54$97

TradingView lightweight chart

CVNA price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $71.00Periodo +3098.2%
Fair value: $71.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2015–2025 · 10 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+65.7%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

4.4%

FCF / Net income

0.63x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $20.32B · net income $1.41B · FCF $889.0M

2015-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

20.6%+19.6% pts

Operating margin

9.3%— pts

Net margin

6.9%+35.1% pts

FCF margin

4.4%+56.1% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
Income Statement
Revenue$20.32B$20.32B$13.67B$10.77B$13.60B$12.81B$5.59B$3.94B$1.96B$858.9M$365.1M$130.4M
Net Income$1.41B$1.41B$210.0M$450.0M$-1.59B$-135.0M$-171.0M$-115.0M$-55.5M$-62.8M$-93.1M$-36.8M
EBITDA$-110.0M$-110.0M$1.36B$1.16B$-2.15B———————
EPS1.691.690.320.15-3.15-0.33-0.53-0.49————
Gross Margin20.6%20.6%21.0%16.0%9.2%15.1%14.2%12.9%10.1%7.9%5.3%1.0%
Operating Margin9.3%9.3%7.2%-0.7%-11.1%———————
Net Margin6.9%6.9%1.5%4.2%-11.7%-1.1%-3.1%-2.9%-2.8%-7.3%-25.5%-28.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.601.604.8027.60-17.0210.484.179.005.34———
Current Ratio4.094.09——————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$889.0M$889.0M$827.0M$716.0M$-1.84B$-3.15B$-968.0M$-988.0M$-558.0M$-278.4M$-279.8M$-67.5M
Returns
ROE40.9%40.9%16.7%185.2%306.4%-44.1%-44.1%-117.2%-69.6%-50.0%——
Valuation
P/E41.0441.04111.4262.49————————
EV/EBITDA——20.4713.44————————
P/B23.1423.1418.5938.69————————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth48.6%48.6%26.9%-20.8%—129.4%41.8%101.5%127.7%135.2%180.0%—
EPS Growth431.4%431.4%112.0%104.8%—38.0%-7.3%—————

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

55.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$6.30

Spread vs growth

376.4%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

35.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$7.62

Spread vs growth

396.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

21.9%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$12.28

Spread vs growth

409.5%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +8.5%

Total return

+8.5%

Start / end P/E

205.8x → 42.0x

EPS bridge

0.32 → 1.69

Residual

-343.4%

EPS growth+431.4%
Multiple rerating-79.6%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-343.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.