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v0.1
CWST$85.09+3.55%
Fair $46.82-45.0%

CWST

Casella Waste Systems, Inc.

Industrials / Waste ManagementNasdaqGS

$85.09

+2.92 (+3.55%)

Modestly Overvalued-45.0%Fair Value $46.82Fund rank 38/100 · PassSEC 16/16 yrs|
SA 40/C
F-Score: 4/9
Margin CompressionSignificantly OvervaluedLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

$29.92

-29.4% CAGR · yield 5.6%

FCF base 5Y

$36.92

-15.4% base · -14.2% expected

Precio de entrada

$17.52

MOS 16% · confianza 91%

FCF escenarios

audited · normalized FCF $78.2M · quality 72.7/100

Pass 38/100
Bear 5Y$21.39-24.1%
Base 5Y$36.92-15.4%
Bull 5Y$62.73-5.9%
Return 0/100Downside 10/100Model quality 85/100Data QA 100/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

40/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

5/100

-45.0% upside

5Y CAGR

-14.2%

0/100

Data QA

100/100

SEC 100%

Latest source: sec-companyfactsPeriods: 16Warnings: 3sec-companyfacts: 16
Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years Estimated downside of 45.0% from current price ROE is 0.5%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · CWSTLocal privado en este navegador · Casella Waste Systems, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$5.4B

P/E

728.4x

↑

EV/EBITDA

17.2x

↑

ROE

0.5%

↓

Gross Margin

33.8%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.79

↑
52-Week Range$85
$74$119
EV/EBITDA Historical17.2x

TradingView lightweight chart

CWST price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $85.09Periodo +352.3%
Buy zone: $17.52Bear 5Y: $21.39Fair value: $46.82Base 5Y: $36.92Bull 5Y: $62.73

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2010–2025 · 15 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+9.7%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

4.6%

FCF / Net income

10.76x

Latest source

SEC-backed

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.84B · net income $7.9M · FCF $84.7M

2010-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

33.8%— pts

Operating margin

3.5%-3.7% pts

Net margin

0.4%+3.5% pts

FCF margin

4.6%— pts
SEC-backed annual metrics active for 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010. Local SEC Companyfacts override Yahoo/FMP for audited annual line items; provider-only fields remain as fallback.
MetricTTM
2025SEC
2024SEC
2023SEC
2022SEC
2021SEC
2020SEC
2019SEC
2018SEC
2017SEC
2016SEC
2015SEC
2014SEC
2013SEC
2012SEC
2011SEC
2010SEC
Income Statement
Revenue$1.84B$1.84B$1.56B$1.26B$1.09B$889.2M$774.6M$743.3M$660.7M$599.3M$565.0M$546.5M$497.6M$455.3M$106.4M$454.7M$457.6M
Net Income$7.9M$7.9M$13.5M$25.4M$53.1M$41.1M$91.1M$31.7M$6.4M$-21.8M$-6.8M$-13.0M$-23.1M$-54.1M$-49.1M$38.4M$-13.9M
EBITDA$379.4M$379.4M$315.4M$252.4M$225.0M$181.3M$150.1M$132.9M$110.2M$49.5M$106.8M$94.6M—$69.0M$47.4M$87.5M$96.4M
EPS0.120.120.230.461.030.801.860.660.15-0.52-0.17-0.17—-0.34-1.831.85—
Gross Margin33.8%33.8%34.0%34.2%33.4%————————————
Operating Margin3.5%3.5%4.7%6.4%8.8%8.7%7.7%7.1%6.0%-2.1%8.0%5.8%2.4%2.7%-35.4%6.5%7.2%
Net Margin0.4%0.4%0.9%2.0%4.9%4.6%11.8%4.3%1.0%-3.6%-1.2%-2.4%-4.6%-11.9%-46.2%8.5%-3.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.790.790.781.091.32————————————
Current Ratio1.381.38———————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$84.7M$84.7M$78.1M$78.2M$86.4M$59.4M$31.8M$13.7M$47.6M$42.7M$26.2M$20.5M—————
Returns
ROE0.5%0.5%0.9%2.5%10.7%9.7%25.2%25.8%40.6%-57.6%-27.9%-60.3%-274.7%-479.8%-299.0%40.9%—
Valuation
P/E728.42728.42380.04190.0284.86109.2646.99132.44582.73——————47.25—
EV/EBITDA17.1817.1822.5221.3020.85————————————
P/B3.543.543.364.739.0910.6611.8434.16——————142.3024.2844.72
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth18.0%18.0%23.1%16.5%22.0%14.8%4.2%12.5%10.2%6.1%3.4%9.8%9.3%328.0%-76.6%-0.6%—
EPS Growth-47.8%-47.8%-50.0%-55.3%28.7%-57.0%181.8%340.0%128.8%-205.9%0.0%——81.4%-198.9%——

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

297.7%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$7.55

Spread vs growth

-345.6%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

137.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$9.14

Spread vs growth

-185.7%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

61.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$14.71

Spread vs growth

-109.6%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -27.4%

Total return

-27.4%

Start / end P/E

509.6x → 709.1x

EPS bridge

0.23 → 0.12

Residual

-18.7%

EPS growth-47.8%
Multiple rerating+39.1%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-18.7%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.

17.2x
22.5x
EV/EBITDA vs Sector17.2x
5.0xmed 9.9x25.8x