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FEC.TO$15.29+5.59%
Fair $15.29+0.0%

FEC.TO

Frontera Energy Corporation

Energy / Oil & Gas E&PToronto

$15.29

+0.81 (+5.59%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $15.29Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 35/D
F-Score: 3/9
Declining RevenueMargin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 20%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $184.6M · quality 46.7/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 35/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

35/100

D

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 3unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is -1.8%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · FEC.TOLocal privado en este navegador · Frontera Energy Corporation
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.1B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

-176.8%

↓

Gross Margin

8.2%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.82

↑
52-Week Range$15
$5$16

TradingView lightweight chart

FEC.TO price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $15.29Periodo -46.4%
Fair value: $15.29

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-9.6%

FCF CAGR

+1.1%

FCF margin

21.0%

FCF / Net income

-0.20x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.01B · net income $-1.06B · FCF $211.4M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

8.2%-28.9% pts

Operating margin

0.3%-31.5% pts

Net margin

-105.4%-126.4% pts

FCF margin

21.0%+6.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.01B$1.01B$1.10B$1.19B$1.37B
Net Income$-1.06B$-1.06B$-24.2M$193.5M$286.6M
EBITDA$-732.4M$-732.4M$384.9M$523.3M$777.3M
EPS-14.34-14.34-0.292.193.08
Gross Margin8.2%8.2%18.1%18.5%37.1%
Operating Margin0.3%0.3%11.5%15.0%31.9%
Net Margin-105.4%-105.4%-2.2%16.3%21.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.820.820.290.290.32
Current Ratio1.311.31———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$211.4M$211.4M$184.6M$-24.6M$204.8M
Returns
ROE-176.8%-176.8%-1.4%10.6%18.1%
Valuation
P/E———3.713.98
EV/EBITDA——2.842.091.75
P/B1.881.880.450.390.72
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-8.3%-8.3%-7.3%-13.2%—
EPS Growth-4844.8%-4844.8%-113.2%-28.9%—
Dividend Yield1.7%1.7%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +164.9%

Total return

+164.9%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.29 → -14.34

Residual

+163.2%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+1.7%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+163.2%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.