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v0.1
FOR$27.70+0.84%
Fair $27.70+0.0%

FOR

Forestar Group Inc.

Real Estate / Real Estate - DevelopmentNYSE

$27.70

+0.23 (+0.84%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $27.70Fund rank 23/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 45/C
F-Score: 1/9

Book/ROE base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · P/B n/d

Book/ROE base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 100% · confianza 20%

Book/ROE escenarios

weak_data · book/share n/d · quality 49.0/100

Data gap 23/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 5/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

45/100

C

Piotroski

1/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 17Warnings: 0unknown: 17
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific NAV/AFFO model required: REIT/real-estate targets are disabled until FFO/AFFO/NAV/cap-rate data exists. REIT NAV/AFFO valuation requires positive AFFO/share history or TTM AFFO/share; generic FCF remains disabled.
Thesis & Journal · FORLocal privado en este navegador · Forestar Group Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.4B

P/E

8.4x

↓

EV/EBITDA

8.7x

↓

ROE

9.5%

↑

Gross Margin

21.9%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.46

↓
52-Week Range$28
$19$31

TradingView lightweight chart

FOR price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $27.70Periodo +15.4%
Fair value: $27.70

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2009–2025 · 16 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+16.4%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-12.0%

FCF / Net income

-1.19x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.66B · net income $167.9M · FCF $-199.9M

2009-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

21.9%— pts

Operating margin

12.6%-72.9% pts

Net margin

10.1%-30.3% pts

FCF margin

-12.0%— pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
Income Statement
Revenue$1.66B$1.66B$1.51B$1.44B$1.52B$1.33B$931.8M$428.3M—$114.3M$197.3M$218.6M$238.2M$331.0M$172.6M$135.6M$101.4M$146.3M
Net Income$167.9M$167.9M$203.4M$166.9M$178.8M$110.2M$60.8M$33.0M—$50.3M$58.6M$-213.0M$16.6M$29.3M$12.9M$7.2M$5.1M$59.1M
EBITDA$212.6M$212.6M$243.8M$209.4M$233.1M————$45.3M$151.8M$69.0M$112.3M$76.6M$46.1M$68.9M$29.4M$134.8M
EPS3.293.294.003.333.592.251.260.79—1.191.38-6.220.380.800.360.200.141.64
Gross Margin21.9%21.9%23.8%21.2%21.3%—————————————
Operating Margin12.6%12.6%16.0%14.4%15.2%————34.8%71.1%11.0%29.6%14.1%15.7%42.9%18.6%85.5%
Net Margin10.1%10.1%13.5%11.6%11.8%8.3%6.5%7.7%—44.0%29.7%-97.5%7.0%8.9%7.5%5.3%5.1%40.4%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.460.460.450.510.600.690.740.570.170.180.200.760.610.500.560.430.43—
Current Ratio1.911.91————————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-199.9M$-199.9M$-160.6M$362.8M$105.2M$-304.7M$-169.0M$-392.1M——————————
Returns
ROE9.5%9.5%12.8%12.2%14.9%10.9%7.0%4.1%—8.3%10.5%-42.5%2.3%4.1%2.4%1.4%1.0%—
Valuation
P/E8.458.458.097.843.11—————————————
EV/EBITDA8.728.727.716.664.31—————————————
P/B0.800.801.030.960.46—————————————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth10.1%10.1%5.0%-5.4%—42.3%117.6%——-42.1%-9.7%-8.2%-28.1%91.8%27.3%33.8%-30.7%—
EPS Growth-17.8%-17.8%20.1%-7.2%—78.6%59.5%——-13.8%122.2%-1736.8%-52.5%122.2%80.0%42.9%-91.5%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-9.3%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$2.46

Spread vs growth

-8.5%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-2.0%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$2.97

Spread vs growth

-15.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

3.8%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$4.79

Spread vs growth

-21.6%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +44.6%

Total return

+44.6%

Start / end P/E

4.8x → 8.4x

EPS bridge

4.00 → 3.29

Residual

-13.5%

EPS growth-17.8%
Multiple rerating+75.9%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-13.5%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.