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FWRG$11.13-4.30%
Fair $11.13+0.0%

FWRG

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical / RestaurantsNasdaqGS

$11.13

-0.50 (-4.30%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $11.13Fund rank 20/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 25/D
F-Score: 5/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-12.3M · quality 25.7/100

Data gap 20/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 9/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

25/100

D

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 7Warnings: 1unknown: 7
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is 3.1%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · FWRGLocal privado en este navegador · First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$686M

P/E

39.8x

↑

EV/EBITDA

16.2x

↑

ROE

3.1%

↓

Gross Margin

19.2%

↓

Debt/Equity

1.61

↑
52-Week Range$11
$10$20

TradingView lightweight chart

FWRG price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $11.13Periodo -49.7%
Fair value: $11.13

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2019–2025 · 6 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+18.7%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-2.6%

FCF / Net income

-1.64x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.22B · net income $19.4M · FCF $-31.8M

2019-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

19.2%— pts

Operating margin

2.5%+11.1% pts

Net margin

1.6%+12.0% pts

FCF margin

-2.6%+6.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Income Statement
Revenue$1.22B$1.22B$1.02B$891.6M$730.2M$601.2M$342.4M$436.4M
Net Income$19.4M$19.4M$18.9M$25.4M$6.9M$-2.1M$-49.7M$-45.4M
EBITDA$103.8M$103.8M$98.4M$85.4M$52.1M$54.6M$-16.5M$-9.5M
EPS0.310.310.300.410.11-0.04-1.10-1.01
Gross Margin19.2%19.2%21.0%21.3%19.1%———
Operating Margin2.5%2.5%4.1%5.1%2.8%3.7%-13.8%-8.6%
Net Margin1.6%1.6%1.9%2.8%0.9%-0.4%-14.5%-10.4%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.611.611.361.080.97———
Current Ratio0.290.29——————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-31.8M$-31.8M$-12.3M$11.8M$-393000.00$27.7M$-45.1M$-37.7M
Returns
ROE3.1%3.1%3.2%4.5%1.3%-0.4%-15.5%-13.8%
Valuation
P/E39.7539.7566.0745.49122.36———
EV/EBITDA16.2416.2420.4519.9024.34———
P/B1.121.122.082.031.55———
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth20.3%20.3%13.9%22.1%—75.6%-21.5%—
EPS Growth3.3%3.3%-26.8%272.7%—96.4%-8.9%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

47.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.99

Spread vs growth

-43.8%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

31.0%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.19

Spread vs growth

-27.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

20.0%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.92

Spread vs growth

-16.7%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -27.9%

Total return

-27.9%

Start / end P/E

51.5x → 35.9x

EPS bridge

0.30 → 0.31

Residual

-1.0%

EPS growth+3.3%
Multiple rerating-30.2%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-1.0%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.