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v0.1
GBX$46.08-2.19%
Fair $46.08+0.0%

GBX

The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.

Industrials / RailroadsNYSE

$46.08

-1.03 (-2.19%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $46.08Fund rank 22/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 44/C
F-Score: 7/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-68.7M · quality 37.3/100

Data gap 22/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 9/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

44/100

C

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 16Warnings: 1unknown: 16
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · GBXLocal privado en este navegador · The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.4B

P/E

9.8x

↓

EV/EBITDA

6.2x

↓

ROE

13.3%

↑

Gross Margin

18.7%

↓

Debt/Equity

1.20

↑
52-Week Range$46
$38$59

TradingView lightweight chart

GBX price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $46.08Periodo +434.3%
Fair value: $46.08

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2010–2025 · 15 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+10.2%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-0.5%

FCF / Net income

-0.07x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.24B · net income $204.1M · FCF $-14.7M

2010-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

18.7%+5.3% pts

Operating margin

10.6%+3.7% pts

Net margin

6.3%+5.7% pts

FCF margin

-0.5%— pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
Income Statement
Revenue$3.24B$3.24B$3.54B$3.94B$2.98B$1.75B$2.79B$3.03B$2.52B$2.17B$2.68B$2.61B$2.20B$1.76B$1.81B$1.24B$756.3M
Net Income$204.1M$204.1M$160.1M$62.5M$46.9M$32.4M$49.0M$71.1M$151.8M$116.1M$183.2M$192.8M$111.9M$-11.0M$58.7M$6.5M$4.3M
EBITDA$485.2M$485.2M$433.2M$276.5M$218.3M$141.7M$278.3M$267.8M$327.3M$325.6M$471.9M$432.0M$279.9M$83.1M$161.2M$105.9M$89.6M
EPS6.356.354.961.891.400.961.462.144.683.655.735.933.44-0.411.910.240.21
Gross Margin18.7%18.7%15.8%11.2%10.3%13.3%12.6%12.1%16.2%19.4%20.6%20.6%14.6%11.7%11.9%11.2%13.5%
Operating Margin10.6%10.6%8.8%5.2%2.7%2.3%6.0%6.1%10.0%12.0%15.2%14.9%10.9%2.4%6.6%5.4%6.9%
Net Margin6.3%6.3%4.5%1.6%1.6%1.9%1.8%2.3%6.0%5.4%6.8%7.4%5.1%-0.6%3.2%0.5%0.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.201.201.321.341.27————————————
Current Ratio3.713.71———————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-14.7M$-14.7M$-68.7M$-290.9M$-531.1M————————————
Returns
ROE13.3%13.3%11.6%5.0%3.7%2.5%3.8%5.6%12.1%11.4%21.0%26.3%21.9%-2.6%13.6%1.8%—
Valuation
P/E9.839.839.2620.6520.89————————————
EV/EBITDA6.206.206.829.839.45————————————
P/B0.970.971.081.050.77————————————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-8.6%-8.6%-10.1%32.5%—-37.4%-8.0%20.4%16.1%-19.0%2.8%18.2%25.5%-2.8%45.4%64.4%—
EPS Growth28.0%28.0%162.4%35.0%—-34.2%-31.8%-54.3%28.2%-36.3%-3.4%72.4%939.0%-121.5%695.8%14.3%—
Dividend Yield2.9%2.9%———————————————

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-13.6%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$4.09

Spread vs growth

41.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-4.9%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$4.95

Spread vs growth

32.9%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

2.3%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$7.97

Spread vs growth

25.7%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +5.2%

Total return

+5.2%

Start / end P/E

9.1x → 7.3x

EPS bridge

4.96 → 6.35

Residual

-5.6%

EPS growth+28.0%
Multiple rerating-20.1%
Dividend+2.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-5.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.