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v0.1
GEL.MI$1.96-2.97%
Fair $1.96+0.0%

GEL.MI

Gel S.p.A.

Unknown / UnknownMilan

$1.96

-0.06 (-2.97%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1.96Fund rank 27/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 28/D
F-Score: 3/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 21%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-789490.00 · quality 65.0/100

Data gap 27/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 32/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

28/100

D

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

12/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 3Warnings: 2unknown: 3
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years ROE is 1.9%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · GEL.MILocal privado en este navegador · Gel S.p.A.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$12M

P/E

21.8x

↑

EV/EBITDA

10.4x

↑

ROE

1.9%

↓

Gross Margin

54.3%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.66

↑
52-Week Range$2
$2$2

TradingView lightweight chart

GEL.MI price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1.960Periodo -6.7%
Fair value: $1.960

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2021–2023 · 2 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-9.8%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-3.2%

FCF / Net income

-2.37x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $15.2M · net income $203626.0 · FCF $-481668.0

2021-FY → 2023-FY

Gross margin

54.3%-0.1% pts

Operating margin

6.3%-6.9% pts

Net margin

1.3%-9.4% pts

FCF margin

-3.2%+3.0% pts
MetricTTM
2023
2022
2021
Income Statement
Revenue$15.2M$15.2M$17.2M$18.6M
Net Income$203626.00$203626.00$704710.00$2.0M
EBITDA$1.8M$1.8M$2.2M$2.9M
EPS0.030.030.100.28
Gross Margin54.3%54.3%54.2%54.4%
Operating Margin6.3%6.3%7.8%13.2%
Net Margin1.3%1.3%4.1%10.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.660.660.670.81
Current Ratio2.572.57——
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-481668.00$-481668.00$-789490.00$-1.1M
Returns
ROE1.9%1.9%6.4%19.5%
Valuation
P/E21.7821.78——
EV/EBITDA10.4110.41——
P/B1.231.23——
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-11.9%-11.9%-7.8%—
EPS Growth-70.6%-70.6%-64.3%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

79.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.17

Spread vs growth

-150.5%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

47.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.21

Spread vs growth

-118.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

27.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.34

Spread vs growth

-98.1%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · available periodreconcilia total -6.7%

Total return

-6.7%

Start / end P/E

20.7x → 65.6x

EPS bridge

0.10 → 0.03

Residual

-153.2%

EPS growth-70.6%
Multiple rerating+217.1%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-153.2%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.