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GERN$1.21-3.20%
Fair $1.21+0.0%

GERN

Geron Corporation

Healthcare / BiotechnologyNasdaqGS

$1.21

-0.04 (-3.20%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1.21Fund rank 27/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 21/D
F-Score: 3/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-168.6M · quality 48.7/100

Data gap 27/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 16/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

21/100

D

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 17Warnings: 1unknown: 17
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific biotech pipeline model required: targets are disabled until product, probability, peak-sales and cash-runway data exists. ROE is -37.0%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · GERNLocal privado en este navegador · Geron Corporation
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$776M

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

-37.0%

↓

Gross Margin

97.4%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.54

↑
52-Week Range$1
$1$2

TradingView lightweight chart

GERN price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1.210Periodo -90.2%
Fair value: $1.210

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2009–2025 · 16 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+33.9%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-60.4%

FCF / Net income

1.33x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $183.9M · net income $-83.5M · FCF $-111.1M

2009-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

97.4%— pts

Operating margin

-28.0%+4041.1% pts

Net margin

-45.4%+4020.9% pts

FCF margin

-60.4%+2535.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
Income Statement
Revenue$183.9M$183.9M$77.0M$237000.00$596000.00$1.4M$253000.00$460000.00$1.1M$1.1M$6.2M$36.4M$1.2M$1.3M$2.7M$2.4M$3.6M$1.7M
Net Income$-83.5M$-83.5M$-174.6M$-184.1M$-141.9M$-116.1M$-75.6M$-68.5M$-27.0M$-27.9M$-29.5M$46000.00$-35.7M$-38.4M$-68.9M$-96.9M$-111.4M$-70.2M
EBITDA$-49.6M$-49.6M$-154.8M$-174.8M$-134.2M$-113.8M$-76.8M$-72.4M——————————
EPS-0.13-0.13-0.27-0.32-0.37-0.35-0.28——-0.18-0.190.00-0.23-0.30————
Gross Margin97.4%97.4%98.4%100.0%100.0%—————————————
Operating Margin-28.0%-28.0%-225.6%-81832.9%-23246.6%-8183.7%-30400.4%-15762.0%-2914.9%-2746.9%-497.3%-1.5%-3149.3%-3036.5%-2648.9%-3942.4%-3120.0%-4069.2%
Net Margin-45.4%-45.4%-226.7%-77690.7%-23808.9%-8335.4%-29888.1%-14901.7%-2534.4%-2621.2%-479.3%0.1%-3093.7%-2991.3%-2542.7%-3972.6%-3125.9%-4066.3%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.540.540.430.350.700.390.11———————————
Current Ratio6.786.78————————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-111.1M$-111.1M$-219.3M$-168.6M$-127.8M$-95.8M$-67.1M$-44.2M$-21.0M—$-18.4M$-24.3M———$-63.0M$-45.1M$-44.8M
Returns
ROE-37.0%-37.0%-62.3%-74.3%-177.4%-91.8%-35.8%-50.7%-15.2%-26.9%-24.1%0.0%-27.3%-64.2%-80.4%-66.1%-57.8%-40.7%
Valuation
P/B3.573.578.234.6311.90—————————————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth138.8%138.8%32386.9%-60.2%—450.6%-45.0%-56.8%0.1%-82.7%-83.1%3054.5%-10.1%-52.6%11.1%-31.6%106.4%—
EPS Growth51.9%51.9%15.6%13.5%—-25.0%———5.3%—100.0%23.3%—————

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -20.4%

Total return

-20.4%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.27 → -0.13

Residual

-20.4%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-20.4%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.