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Recent

v0.1
GFR.TO$8.07+3.46%
Fair $8.07+0.0%

GFR.TO

Greenfire Resources Ltd.

Energy / Oil & Gas E&PToronto

$8.07

+0.27 (+3.46%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $8.07Fund rank 33/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 44/C
F-Score: 4/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $53.1M · quality 71.0/100

Data gap 33/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 59/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

44/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. ROE is 4.1%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · GFR.TOLocal privado en este navegador · Greenfire Resources Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.0B

P/E

12.2x

↓

EV/EBITDA

3.0x

↓

ROE

4.1%

↑

Gross Margin

44.4%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.01

↓
52-Week Range$8
$6$10

TradingView lightweight chart

GFR.TO price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $8.070Periodo +18.7%
Fair value: $8.070

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-15.5%

FCF CAGR

-41.8%

FCF margin

4.1%

FCF / Net income

0.52x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $603.3M · net income $47.5M · FCF $24.7M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

44.4%-6.9% pts

Operating margin

9.8%-17.3% pts

Net margin

7.9%-5.3% pts

FCF margin

4.1%-8.4% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$603.3M$603.3M$823.0M$676.0M$998.8M
Net Income$47.5M$47.5M$121.4M$-135.7M$131.7M
EBITDA$181.2M$181.2M$165.8M$-1.7M$188.2M
EPS0.660.661.70-2.211.70
Gross Margin44.4%44.4%46.5%41.3%51.3%
Operating Margin9.8%9.8%17.5%-8.6%27.1%
Net Margin7.9%7.9%14.8%-20.1%13.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.010.010.410.560.30
Current Ratio0.660.66———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$24.7M$24.7M$57.1M$53.1M$125.1M
Returns
ROE4.1%4.1%14.8%-19.5%15.7%
Valuation
P/E12.2312.236.08——
EV/EBITDA3.033.036.10——
P/B0.500.500.90——
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-26.7%-26.7%21.7%-32.3%—
EPS Growth-61.2%-61.2%176.9%-229.8%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

2.8%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.72

Spread vs growth

-63.9%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

5.6%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.87

Spread vs growth

-66.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

7.8%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.40

Spread vs growth

-69.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +40.1%

Total return

+40.1%

Start / end P/E

3.4x → 12.2x

EPS bridge

1.70 → 0.66

Residual

-159.6%

EPS growth-61.2%
Multiple rerating+260.9%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-159.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.