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Financial Analysis

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v0.1
GHG$1.26-1.56%
Fair $1.26+0.0%

GHG

GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / LodgingNYSE

$1.26

-0.02 (-1.56%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1.26Fund rank 31/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 40/C
F-Score: 6/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 26% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $293.8M · quality 58.0/100

Data gap 31/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 58/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

40/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · GHGLocal privado en este navegador · GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$127M

P/E

5.3x

↓

EV/EBITDA

-0.0x

↓

ROE

10.6%

↑

Gross Margin

34.9%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.93

↑
52-Week Range$1
$1$3

TradingView lightweight chart

GHG price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1.260Periodo -90.3%
Fair value: $1.260

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-9.3%

FCF CAGR

-54.3%

FCF margin

1.8%

FCF / Net income

0.12x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.10B · net income $166.8M · FCF $20.1M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

34.9%+7.5% pts

Operating margin

12.8%+38.4% pts

Net margin

15.2%+44.1% pts

FCF margin

1.8%-12.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.10B$1.10B$1.34B$1.63B$1.47B
Net Income$166.8M$166.8M$110.0M$269.3M$-425.2M
EBITDA$301.7M$301.7M$319.3M$511.3M$-350.8M
EPS1.651.651.082.60-3.66
Gross Margin34.9%34.9%38.8%41.8%27.4%
Operating Margin12.8%12.8%21.0%21.6%-25.6%
Net Margin15.2%15.2%8.2%16.6%-28.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.930.931.171.271.39
Current Ratio1.611.61———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$20.1M$20.1M$293.8M$366.5M$210.7M
Returns
ROE10.6%10.6%7.5%18.7%-26.4%
Valuation
P/E5.255.252.311.31—
EV/EBITDA-0.04-0.041.502.77—
P/B0.110.110.170.240.24
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-18.3%-18.3%-17.4%10.8%—
EPS Growth52.8%52.8%-58.5%171.0%—
Dividend Yield4.8%4.8%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-59.2%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.11

Spread vs growth

112.0%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-39.4%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.14

Spread vs growth

92.1%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

-18.3%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.22

Spread vs growth

71.1%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -31.6%

Total return

-31.6%

Start / end P/E

1.8x → 0.8x

EPS bridge

1.08 → 1.65

Residual

-30.8%

EPS growth+52.8%
Multiple rerating-58.3%
Dividend+4.8%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-30.8%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.