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GNC.AX$5.00+1.42%
Fair $5.00+0.0%

GNC.AX

GrainCorp Limited

Consumer Defensive / Farm ProductsASX

$5.00

+0.07 (+1.42%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $5.00Fund rank 35/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 38/D
F-Score: 4/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $176.7M · quality 68.7/100

Data gap 35/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 63/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

38/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is 2.8%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · GNC.AXLocal privado en este navegador · GrainCorp Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.1B

P/E

27.8x

↑

EV/EBITDA

5.2x

↓

ROE

2.8%

↓

Gross Margin

12.9%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.59

↑
52-Week Range$5
$5$9

TradingView lightweight chart

GNC.AX price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $5.000Periodo +3.0%
Fair value: $5.000

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-2.5%

FCF CAGR

-21.3%

FCF margin

2.4%

FCF / Net income

4.43x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $7.29B · net income $39.9M · FCF $176.7M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

12.9%-8.5% pts

Operating margin

2.6%-9.9% pts

Net margin

0.5%-4.3% pts

FCF margin

2.4%-2.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$7.29B$7.29B$6.49B$8.21B$7.85B
Net Income$39.9M$39.9M$61.8M$249.7M$380.4M
EBITDA$270.1M$270.1M$252.1M$561.1M$704.9M
EPS——0.281.111.67
Gross Margin12.9%12.9%10.5%16.0%21.3%
Operating Margin2.6%2.6%0.3%6.8%12.5%
Net Margin0.5%0.5%1.0%3.0%4.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.590.590.630.760.76
Current Ratio1.291.29———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$176.7M$176.7M$76.0M$509.0M$362.9M
Returns
ROE2.8%2.8%4.1%15.7%26.2%
Valuation
P/E27.7827.7833.056.145.12
EV/EBITDA5.205.209.343.803.87
P/B0.770.771.340.961.34
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth12.3%12.3%-21.0%4.6%—
EPS Growth——-75.2%-33.4%—
Dividend Yield5.6%5.6%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -30.7%

Total return

-30.7%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.28 → n/d

Residual

-36.3%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+5.6%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-36.3%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.