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GO$8.19-3.76%
Fair $8.19+0.0%

GO

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.

Consumer Defensive / Grocery StoresNasdaqGS

$8.19

-0.32 (-3.76%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $8.19Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 27/D
F-Score: 4/9
Margin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $1.8M · quality 41.0/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 18/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

27/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 9Warnings: 2unknown: 9
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists. Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is -22.9%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · GOLocal privado en este navegador · Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$810M

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

-22.9%

↓

Gross Margin

30.3%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.49

↑
52-Week Range$8
$6$19

TradingView lightweight chart

GO price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $8.190Periodo -71.3%
Fair value: $8.190

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2017–2026 · 9 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+9.5%

FCF CAGR

+6.4%

FCF margin

0.5%

FCF / Net income

-0.11x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $4.69B · net income $-224.9M · FCF $23.8M

2017-FY → 2026-FY

Gross margin

30.3%-0.2% pts

Operating margin

-4.7%-8.4% pts

Net margin

-4.8%-5.8% pts

FCF margin

0.5%-0.1% pts
MetricTTM
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2019
2018
2017
Income Statement
Revenue$4.69B$4.69B$4.69B$4.37B$3.97B$3.58B$3.13B$2.56B$2.29B$2.08B
Net Income$-224.9M$-224.9M$-224.9M$39.5M$79.4M$65.1M$106.7M$15.4M$15.9M$20.6M
EBITDA——$-87.3M$192.3M$215.0M$173.1M$162.9M$116.2M$127.9M$120.1M
EPS-2.30-2.30-2.300.400.790.651.080.190.230.30
Gross Margin30.3%30.3%30.3%30.2%31.3%30.5%31.1%30.8%30.4%30.4%
Operating Margin-4.7%-4.7%1.9%2.2%3.2%2.7%3.4%2.7%3.6%3.7%
Net Margin-4.8%-4.8%-4.8%0.9%2.0%1.8%3.4%0.6%0.7%1.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.490.491.841.381.141.270.500.62——
Current Ratio——1.28———————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$23.8M$23.8M$1.8M$-95.0M$111.5M$38.4M$56.3M$35.6M$41.0M$13.6M
Returns
ROE-22.9%-22.9%-22.9%3.3%6.5%5.9%11.6%2.1%5.3%4.8%
Valuation
P/E———39.1833.5444.18————
EV/EBITDA———16.4018.3824.20————
P/B——0.821.302.192.59————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth7.3%7.3%7.3%10.1%10.9%—22.5%11.9%10.2%—
EPS Growth-675.0%-675.0%-675.0%-49.4%21.5%—468.4%-17.4%-23.3%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -39.7%

Total return

-39.7%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-2.30 → -2.30

Residual

-39.7%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-39.7%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.