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Recent

v0.1
HD$309.46-2.42%
Fair $404.73+30.8%

HD

The Home Depot, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical / Home Improvement RetailNYSE

$309.46

-7.68 (-2.42%)

Modestly Undervalued+30.8%Fair Value $404.73Fund rank 49/100 · PassSEC 19/19 yrs|
SA 30/D
F-Score: 4/9
High DebtMargin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

$235.15

-8.8% CAGR · yield 7.3%

FCF base 5Y

$243.36

-4.7% base · +3.2% expected

Precio de entrada

$106.49

MOS 23% · confianza 62%

FCF escenarios

modelled · normalized FCF $16.3B · quality 50.7/100

Pass 49/100
Bear 5Y$119.67-17.3%
Base 5Y$243.36-4.7%
Bull 5Y$845.19+22.3%
Return 49/100Downside 26/100Model quality 79/100Data QA 73/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

30/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

81/100

+30.8% upside

5Y CAGR

+3.2%

63/100

Data QA

100/100

SEC 100%

Latest source: sec-companyfactsPeriods: 19Warnings: 3sec-companyfacts: 19
Debt-to-Equity ratio is 5.10, above the 2.0 threshold Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is 1.1%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · HDLocal privado en este navegador · The Home Depot, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$308.6B

P/E

22.0x

↑

EV/EBITDA

14.8x

↑

ROE

110.5%

↑

Gross Margin

33.3%

↑

Debt/Equity

5.10

↑
52-Week Range$309
$289$427
EV/EBITDA Historical14.8x

TradingView lightweight chart

HD price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $309.46Periodo +374.7%
Buy zone: $106.49Bear 5Y: $119.67Fair value: $404.73Base 5Y: $243.36Bull 5Y: $845.19

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2008–2026 · 18 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+4.3%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

7.7%

FCF / Net income

0.89x

Latest source

SEC-backed

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $164.68B · net income $14.16B · FCF $12.65B

2008-FY → 2026-FY

Gross margin

33.3%-0.3% pts

Operating margin

12.7%+3.3% pts

Net margin

8.6%+2.9% pts

FCF margin

7.7%— pts
SEC-backed annual metrics active for 2026, 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008. Local SEC Companyfacts override Yahoo/FMP for audited annual line items; provider-only fields remain as fallback.
MetricTTM
2026SEC
2025SEC
2024SEC
2023SEC
2022SEC
2021SEC
2020SEC
2019SEC
2018SEC
2017SEC
2016SEC
2015SEC
2014SEC
2013SEC
2012SEC
2011SEC
2010SEC
2009SEC
2008SEC
Income Statement
Revenue$164.68B$164.68B$159.51B$152.67B$157.40B$151.16B$132.11B$110.22B$108.20B$100.90B$94.59B$88.52B$83.18B$78.81B$18.25B$70.39B$68.00B$66.18B$71.29B$77.35B
Net Income$14.16B$14.16B$14.81B$15.14B$17.11B$16.43B$12.87B$11.24B$11.12B$8.63B$7.96B$7.01B$6.34B$5.38B$1.02B$3.88B$3.34B$2.66B$2.26B$4.39B
EBITDA$25.14B$25.14B$25.49B$25.11B$27.07B$25.90B$20.80B$18.14B$17.68B$16.74B$15.40B$13.64B$12.26B$10.92B$9.45B$8.34B$7.56B$6.61B$6.26B$9.15B
EPS14.2314.2314.9115.1116.6915.5311.9410.259.737.296.455.464.713.760.682.472.011.571.342.37
Gross Margin33.3%33.3%33.4%33.4%33.5%33.6%34.0%34.1%34.3%34.0%34.2%34.2%34.1%34.2%34.9%34.5%34.3%33.9%33.7%33.6%
Operating Margin12.7%12.7%13.5%14.2%15.3%15.2%13.8%14.4%14.4%14.5%14.2%13.3%12.6%11.6%42.6%9.5%8.6%7.3%6.1%9.4%
Net Margin8.6%8.6%9.3%9.9%10.9%10.9%9.7%10.2%10.3%8.6%8.4%7.9%7.6%6.8%5.6%5.5%4.9%4.0%3.2%5.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity5.105.109.3850.0432.24-21.4610.53-9.47————————0.520.50——
Current Ratio1.041.04——————————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$12.65B$12.65B$16.32B$17.95B$11.50B———————————————
Returns
ROE110.5%110.5%223.0%1450.5%1095.1%968.9%390.0%360.8%592.2%593.5%183.6%111.0%68.1%43.0%5.7%21.7%17.7%13.7%12.7%24.8%
Valuation
P/E21.9521.9520.9520.6718.7220.1126.1630.4832.1042.8548.4357.2166.3283.08459.37126.47155.41198.96233.12131.80
EV/EBITDA14.8014.8018.2516.4214.31———————————————
P/B24.2624.2646.72299.81204.98—102.07——254.3788.9663.4545.1035.7726.5527.4027.4227.2529.6332.73
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth3.2%3.2%4.5%-3.0%4.1%14.4%19.9%1.9%7.2%6.7%6.9%6.4%5.5%331.9%-74.1%3.5%2.8%-7.2%-7.8%—
EPS Growth-4.6%-4.6%-1.3%-9.5%7.5%30.1%16.5%5.3%33.5%13.0%18.1%15.9%25.3%452.9%-72.5%22.9%28.0%17.2%-43.5%—
Dividend Yield2.9%2.9%——————————————————

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

24.5%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$27.46

Spread vs growth

-29.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

18.5%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$33.23

Spread vs growth

-23.0%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

14.2%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$53.51

Spread vs growth

-18.7%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -13.0%

Total return

-13.0%

Start / end P/E

24.7x → 21.7x

EPS bridge

14.91 → 14.23

Residual

+0.5%

EPS growth-4.6%
Multiple rerating-12.0%
Dividend+2.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+0.5%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.

14.3x18.2x
EV/EBITDA vs Sector14.8x
4.7xmed 9.4x22.2x