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HERDEZ.MX$59.18-1.68%
Fair $59.18+0.0%

HERDEZ.MX

Grupo Herdez, S.A.B. de C.V.

Consumer Defensive / Packaged FoodsMexico

$59.18

-1.01 (-1.68%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $59.18Fund rank 32/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 46/C
F-Score: 7/9
High Debt

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $4.7B · quality 58.0/100

Data gap 32/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 85/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

46/100

C

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 2.45, above the 2.0 threshold
Thesis & Journal · HERDEZ.MXLocal privado en este navegador · Grupo Herdez, S.A.B. de C.V.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$19.0B

P/E

11.1x

↓

EV/EBITDA

3.5x

↓

ROE

42.3%

↑

Gross Margin

40.3%

↑

Debt/Equity

2.45

↑
52-Week Range$59
$53$90

TradingView lightweight chart

HERDEZ.MX price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $59.18Periodo +1417.4%
Fair value: $59.18

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+6.8%

FCF CAGR

-10.6%

FCF margin

7.4%

FCF / Net income

1.59x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $38.59B · net income $1.79B · FCF $2.85B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

40.3%+4.9% pts

Operating margin

14.3%+2.4% pts

Net margin

4.6%+2.2% pts

FCF margin

7.4%-5.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$38.59B$38.59B$37.42B$36.21B$31.65B
Net Income$1.79B$1.79B$1.36B$1.32B$776.6M
EBITDA$7.83B$7.83B$7.22B$7.33B$5.69B
EPS5.555.554.193.982.28
Gross Margin40.3%40.3%40.0%38.9%35.4%
Operating Margin14.3%14.3%14.2%13.9%11.9%
Net Margin4.6%4.6%3.6%3.6%2.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity2.452.451.331.471.66
Current Ratio1.451.45———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$2.85B$2.85B$5.43B$4.73B$3.98B
Returns
ROE42.3%42.3%17.2%18.6%11.4%
Valuation
P/E11.0611.0613.1011.4019.09
EV/EBITDA3.463.463.503.244.23
P/B4.514.512.262.122.18
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth3.1%3.1%3.3%14.4%—
EPS Growth32.4%32.4%5.3%74.8%—
Dividend Yield2.5%2.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-1.8%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$5.25

Spread vs growth

34.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

2.7%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$6.35

Spread vs growth

29.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

6.3%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$10.23

Spread vs growth

26.1%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +10.5%

Total return

+10.5%

Start / end P/E

13.1x → 10.7x

EPS bridge

4.19 → 5.55

Residual

-6.0%

EPS growth+32.4%
Multiple rerating-18.4%
Dividend+2.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-6.0%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.