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HFD.L$174.00+1.28%
Fair $174.00+0.0%

HFD.L

Halfords Group plc

Consumer Cyclical / Specialty RetailLSE

$174.00

+2.20 (+1.28%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $174.00Fund rank 38/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 45/C
F-Score: 5/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 23% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $121.8M · quality 80.0/100

Data gap 38/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 85/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

45/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is -6.7%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · HFD.LLocal privado en este navegador · Halfords Group plc
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$379M

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

358.8x

↑

ROE

-6.7%

↓

Gross Margin

50.7%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.56

↑
52-Week Range$174
$124$177

TradingView lightweight chart

HFD.L price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $174.20Periodo -34.3%
Fair value: $174.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+7.5%

FCF CAGR

+24.6%

FCF margin

8.2%

FCF / Net income

-4.21x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.72B · net income $-33.6M · FCF $141.5M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

50.7%-1.5% pts

Operating margin

2.9%-4.4% pts

Net margin

-2.0%-7.6% pts

FCF margin

8.2%+3.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.72B$1.72B$1.70B$1.57B$1.38B
Net Income$-33.6M$-33.6M$16.9M$28.1M$77.7M
EBITDA$111.0M$111.0M$177.2M$172.8M$212.0M
EPS-0.15-0.150.070.150.36
Gross Margin50.7%50.7%48.5%48.9%52.2%
Operating Margin2.9%2.9%3.3%3.2%7.3%
Net Margin-2.0%-2.0%1.0%1.8%5.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.560.560.590.700.71
Current Ratio0.840.84———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$141.5M$141.5M$121.8M$100.3M$73.2M
Returns
ROE-6.7%-6.7%3.1%5.0%14.1%
Valuation
P/E——2097.301116.00671.98
EV/EBITDA358.82358.82199.63222.33248.21
P/B79.1279.1263.3168.3594.87
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth1.1%1.1%7.9%13.8%—
EPS Growth-308.1%-308.1%-50.7%-58.8%—
Dividend Yield5.1%5.1%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +9.4%

Total return

+9.4%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.07 → -0.15

Residual

+4.3%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+5.1%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+4.3%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.