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v0.1
HFG.DE$4.23-2.60%
Fair $4.23+0.0%

HFG.DE

HelloFresh SE

Consumer Cyclical / RestaurantsXETRA

$4.23

-0.11 (-2.60%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $4.23Fund rank 22/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 21/D
F-Score: 5/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 17%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $93.6M · quality 33.7/100

Data gap 22/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 11/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

21/100

D

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is -13.8%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · HFG.DELocal privado en este navegador · HelloFresh SE
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$606M

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

3.6x

↓

ROE

-13.8%

↓

Gross Margin

61.7%

↑

Debt/Equity

1.05

↑
52-Week Range$4
$3$10

TradingView lightweight chart

HFG.DE price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $4.230Periodo -60.1%
Fair value: $4.230

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-3.9%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

2.5%

FCF / Net income

-1.81x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $6.76B · net income $-92.6M · FCF $167.3M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

61.7%-3.9% pts

Operating margin

1.5%-1.6% pts

Net margin

-1.4%-3.0% pts

FCF margin

2.5%+3.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$6.76B$6.76B$7.66B$7.60B$7.61B
Net Income$-92.6M$-92.6M$-136.4M$19.4M$127.0M
EBITDA$323.6M$323.6M$303.9M$339.9M$393.4M
EPS-0.60-0.60-0.830.100.63
Gross Margin61.7%61.7%62.4%64.8%65.6%
Operating Margin1.5%1.5%-0.1%1.6%3.2%
Net Margin-1.4%-1.4%-1.8%0.3%1.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.051.051.030.700.69
Current Ratio0.730.73———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$167.3M$167.3M$93.6M$78.0M$-104.1M
Returns
ROE-13.8%-13.8%-15.3%1.9%13.2%
Valuation
P/E———134.6539.24
EV/EBITDA3.583.588.447.8011.67
P/B0.980.982.402.324.61
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-11.8%-11.8%0.9%-0.1%—
EPS Growth27.7%27.7%-930.0%-84.1%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -58.1%

Total return

-58.1%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.83 → -0.60

Residual

-58.1%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-58.1%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.