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HFG.L$501.88-0.62%
Fair $501.88+0.0%

HFG.L

Hilton Food Group plc

Consumer Defensive / Packaged FoodsLSE

$501.88

-3.13 (-0.62%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $501.88Fund rank 24/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 35/D
F-Score: 6/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 16%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $49.9M · quality 33.0/100

Data gap 24/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 24/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

35/100

D

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · HFG.LLocal privado en este navegador · Hilton Food Group plc
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$451M

P/E

9.8x

↓

EV/EBITDA

271.2x

↑

ROE

21.6%

↑

Gross Margin

10.4%

↓

Debt/Equity

1.30

↑
52-Week Range$502
$448$888

TradingView lightweight chart

HFG.L price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $501.88Periodo +195.2%
Fair value: $501.88

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+3.1%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-0.3%

FCF / Net income

-0.15x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $4.21B · net income $78.9M · FCF $-11.9M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

10.4%+0.4% pts

Operating margin

1.3%-0.4% pts

Net margin

1.9%+1.4% pts

FCF margin

-0.3%-0.4% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$4.21B$4.21B$3.82B$3.99B$3.85B
Net Income$78.9M$78.9M$39.3M$36.4M$17.7M
EBITDA$168.5M$168.5M$175.1M$164.2M$132.1M
EPS0.870.870.430.400.20
Gross Margin10.4%10.4%11.3%10.8%9.9%
Operating Margin1.3%1.3%2.5%2.1%1.7%
Net Margin1.9%1.9%1.0%0.9%0.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.301.301.471.591.85
Current Ratio1.091.09———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-11.9M$-11.9M$49.9M$107.3M$2.9M
Returns
ROE21.6%21.6%12.8%11.7%6.0%
Valuation
P/E9.849.842103.931902.992857.87
EV/EBITDA271.18271.18473.30423.58383.71
P/B123.99123.99269.20222.96170.67
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth10.3%10.3%-4.2%3.7%—
EPS Growth101.6%101.6%7.7%104.1%—
Dividend Yield6.9%6.9%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

270.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$44.53

Spread vs growth

-169.3%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

128.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$53.88

Spread vs growth

-26.5%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

58.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$86.78

Spread vs growth

43.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -35.4%

Total return

-35.4%

Start / end P/E

2011.5x → 574.9x

EPS bridge

0.43 → 0.87

Residual

-72.6%

EPS growth+101.6%
Multiple rerating-71.4%
Dividend+6.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-72.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.