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HLLY$2.62-4.03%
Fair $8.06+207.5%

HLLY

Holley Inc.

Consumer Cyclical / Auto PartsNYSE

$2.62

-0.11 (-4.03%)

Significantly Undervalued+207.5%Fair Value $8.06Fund rank 53/100 · PassSEC 7/7 yrs|
SA 41/C
F-Score: 7/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

$2.69

+0.9% CAGR · yield 9.6%

FCF base 5Y

$2.28

-2.8% base · +9.9% expected

Precio de entrada

$0.93

MOS 28% · confianza 42%

FCF escenarios

modelled · normalized FCF $40.1M · quality 41.7/100

Pass 53/100
Bear 5Y$1.04-16.9%
Base 5Y$2.28-2.8%
Bull 5Y$11.21+33.8%
Return 77/100Downside 28/100Model quality 23/100Data QA 64/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

41/100

C

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

100/100

+207.5% upside

5Y CAGR

+9.9%

90/100

Data QA

100/100

SEC 100%

Latest source: sec-companyfactsPeriods: 7Warnings: 1sec-companyfacts: 7
ROE is 4.3%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · HLLYLocal privado en este navegador · Holley Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$315M

P/E

17.6x

↑

EV/EBITDA

7.4x

↓

ROE

4.3%

↓

Gross Margin

43.4%

↑

Debt/Equity

1.16

↑
52-Week Range$3
$2$4
EV/EBITDA Historical7.4x

TradingView lightweight chart

HLLY price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $2.620Periodo -73.1%
Buy zone: $0.930Bear 5Y: $1.040Fair value: $8.057Base 5Y: $2.280Bull 5Y: $11.21

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2019–2025 · 6 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+8.9%

FCF CAGR

+60.3%

FCF margin

5.5%

FCF / Net income

1.77x

Latest source

SEC-backed

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $613.5M · net income $19.2M · FCF $33.9M

2019-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

43.4%+3.0% pts

Operating margin

13.4%+0.9% pts

Net margin

3.1%+3.0% pts

FCF margin

5.5%+5.0% pts
SEC-backed annual metrics active for 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019. Local SEC Companyfacts override Yahoo/FMP for audited annual line items; provider-only fields remain as fallback.
MetricTTM
2025SEC
2024SEC
2023SEC
2022SEC
2021SEC
2020SEC
2019SEC
Income Statement
Revenue$613.5M$613.5M$602.2M$659.7M$688.4M$692.8M$504.2M$368.7M
Net Income$19.2M$19.2M$-23.2M$19.2M$73.8M$-27.1M$32.9M$561000.00
EBITDA$109.3M$109.3M$54.1M$118.7M$148.9M———
EPS0.160.16-0.200.160.14-0.300.490.01
Gross Margin43.4%43.4%39.6%38.8%36.8%41.4%41.3%40.4%
Operating Margin13.4%13.4%2.4%14.3%7.4%11.2%16.9%12.5%
Net Margin3.1%3.1%-3.9%2.9%10.7%-3.9%6.5%0.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.161.161.311.321.562.122.72—
Current Ratio3.173.17——————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$33.9M$33.9M$40.1M$82.2M$-1.3M$6.3M$79.0M$2.0M
Returns
ROE4.3%4.3%-5.5%4.3%17.7%-8.9%13.7%0.3%
Valuation
P/E17.5917.59—17.5920.11—5.74281.50
EV/EBITDA7.377.3715.959.225.97———
P/B0.750.750.790.760.790.830.79—
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth1.9%1.9%-8.7%-4.2%-0.6%37.4%36.8%—
EPS Growth180.0%180.0%-225.0%14.3%146.7%-161.2%4800.0%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

13.3%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.23

Spread vs growth

166.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

11.9%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.28

Spread vs growth

168.1%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

11.0%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.45

Spread vs growth

169.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +35.1%

Total return

+35.1%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.20 → 0.16

Residual

+35.1%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+35.1%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.

6.0x16.0x
EV/EBITDA vs Sector7.4x
3.7xmed 9.4x14.1x