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HLMN$7.26-1.82%
Fair $7.26+0.0%

HLMN

Hillman Solutions Corp.

Industrials / Tools & AccessoriesNasdaqGM

$7.26

-0.14 (-1.82%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $7.26Fund rank 28/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 42/C
F-Score: 8/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $98.1M · quality 54.7/100

Data gap 28/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 38/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

42/100

C

Piotroski

8/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 7Warnings: 1unknown: 7
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is 3.3%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · HLMNLocal privado en este navegador · Hillman Solutions Corp.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.4B

P/E

40.4x

↑

EV/EBITDA

8.6x

↓

ROE

3.3%

↓

Gross Margin

48.7%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.62

↑
52-Week Range$7
$7$11

TradingView lightweight chart

HLMN price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $7.265Periodo -25.9%
Fair value: $7.265

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2019–2025 · 6 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

—

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

2.3%

FCF / Net income

0.87x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.55B · net income $40.3M · FCF $35.1M

2019-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

48.7%— pts

Operating margin

7.3%— pts

Net margin

2.6%— pts

FCF margin

2.3%— pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Income Statement
Revenue$1.55B$1.55B$1.47B$1.48B$1.49B$1.43B——
Net Income$40.3M$40.3M$17.3M$-9.6M$-16.4M$-38.3M$-28.9M$0.00
EBITDA$254.2M$254.2M$215.8M$182.6M$159.9M$131.0M——
EPS0.200.200.09-0.05-0.08-0.28——
Gross Margin48.7%48.7%48.1%43.9%43.0%———
Operating Margin7.3%7.3%6.0%4.1%2.7%0.7%——
Net Margin2.6%2.6%1.2%-0.6%-1.1%-2.7%——
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.620.620.670.720.840.79——
Current Ratio2.952.95——————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$35.1M$35.1M$98.1M$172.3M$49.4M———
Returns
ROE3.3%3.3%1.5%-0.8%-1.4%-3.3%-577.8%—
Valuation
P/E40.3640.36106.44—————
EV/EBITDA8.608.6012.3013.6815.21———
P/B1.181.181.611.471.29———
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth5.4%5.4%-0.3%-0.7%————
EPS Growth122.2%122.2%280.0%37.5%————

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

47.7%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.64

Spread vs growth

74.5%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

31.3%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.78

Spread vs growth

90.9%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

20.2%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.26

Spread vs growth

102.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +1.0%

Total return

+1.0%

Start / end P/E

79.9x → 36.3x

EPS bridge

0.09 → 0.20

Residual

-66.6%

EPS growth+122.2%
Multiple rerating-54.5%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-66.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.