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v0.1
HOV$112.78+2.19%
Fair $112.78+0.0%

HOV

Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical / Residential ConstructionNYSE

$112.78

+2.42 (+2.19%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $112.78Fund rank 28/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 40/C
F-Score: 4/9
Margin Compression

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $166.2M · quality 46.7/100

Data gap 28/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 39/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

40/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 17Warnings: 1unknown: 17
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · HOVLocal privado en este navegador · Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$660M

P/E

31.2x

↑

EV/EBITDA

10.6x

↑

ROE

7.7%

↑

Gross Margin

14.1%

↓

Debt/Equity

1.12

↑
52-Week Range$113
$86$162

TradingView lightweight chart

HOV price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $112.78Periodo +47.3%
Fair value: $112.78

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2009–2025 · 16 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+4.0%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

5.6%

FCF / Net income

2.60x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.98B · net income $63.9M · FCF $166.2M

2009-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

14.1%— pts

Operating margin

2.4%— pts

Net margin

2.1%+47.0% pts

FCF margin

5.6%+7.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
Income Statement
Revenue$2.98B$2.98B$3.00B$2.76B$2.92B$2.78B$2.34B$2.02B$1.99B$2.45B$2.75B$2.15B$2.06B$1.85B$1.49B$1.13B$1.37B$1.60B
Net Income$63.9M$63.9M$242.0M$205.9M$225.5M$607.8M$50.9M$-42.1M$4.5M$-332.2M$-2.8M$-16.1M$307.1M$31.3M$-66.2M$-286.1M$2.6M$-716.7M
EBITDA$135.4M$135.4M$355.6M$318.8M$372.6M—————————————
EPS7.437.4331.7926.8829.0085.867.03-7.060.72-56.23-0.50-2.7546.755.50-13.00-71.250.75-229.00
Gross Margin14.1%14.1%19.6%21.0%22.0%—————————————
Operating Margin2.4%2.4%8.3%10.0%11.9%—————————————
Net Margin2.1%2.1%8.1%7.5%7.7%21.8%2.2%-2.1%0.2%-13.5%-0.1%-0.7%14.9%1.7%-4.5%-25.2%0.2%-44.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.121.121.231.963.377.14-3.28-3.02-3.17-3.50-12.50-14.51-14.18-3.57-3.21———
Current Ratio4.714.71————————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$166.2M$166.2M$5.8M$416.5M$76.9M$204.3M$289.4M$-253.1M$-72.0M$295.1M$379.0M$-322.6M$-194.0M$7.7M$-72.1M$-208.2M$30.0M$-30.5M
Returns
ROE7.7%7.7%30.2%35.4%58.9%347.5%-11.7%8.6%-1.0%72.2%2.2%12.6%-260.7%-7.2%13.6%57.6%-0.8%—
Valuation
P/E31.2431.245.763.141.30—————————————
EV/EBITDA10.6010.605.803.993.27—————————————
P/B0.940.941.600.970.66—————————————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-0.9%-0.9%9.0%-5.7%—18.7%16.2%1.3%-18.8%-10.9%28.1%4.1%11.5%24.6%30.9%-17.3%-14.1%—
EPS Growth-76.6%-76.6%18.3%-7.3%—1121.3%199.6%-1080.6%101.3%-11146.0%81.8%-105.9%750.0%142.3%81.8%-9600.0%100.3%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

10.4%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$10.01

Spread vs growth

-87.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

10.3%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$12.11

Spread vs growth

-86.9%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

10.1%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$19.50

Spread vs growth

-86.8%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +24.9%

Total return

+24.9%

Start / end P/E

2.8x → 15.2x

EPS bridge

31.79 → 7.43

Residual

-332.9%

EPS growth-76.6%
Multiple rerating+434.5%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-332.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.