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IBM$322.07+0.51%
Fair $322.07+0.0%

IBM

International Business Machines Corporation

Technology / Information Technology ServicesNYSE

$322.07

+1.65 (+0.51%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $322.07Fund rank 35/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 48/C
F-Score: 7/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 22% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $11.8B · quality 67.3/100

Data gap 35/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 91/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

48/100

C

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 19Warnings: 0unknown: 19
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · IBMLocal privado en este navegador · International Business Machines Corporation
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$302.7B

P/E

28.5x

↑

EV/EBITDA

20.6x

↑

ROE

32.4%

↑

Gross Margin

58.2%

↑

Debt/Equity

1.98

↑
52-Week Range$322
$212$328

TradingView lightweight chart

IBM price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $322.07Periodo +190.4%
Fair value: $322.07

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2007–2025 · 18 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-2.1%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

17.0%

FCF / Net income

1.08x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $67.54B · net income $10.59B · FCF $11.46B

2007-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

58.2%+15.9% pts

Operating margin

18.5%— pts

Net margin

15.7%+5.1% pts

FCF margin

17.0%— pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
Income Statement
Revenue$67.54B$67.54B$62.75B$61.86B$60.53B$57.35B$55.18B$57.71B$79.59B$79.14B$79.92B$81.74B$92.79B$98.37B$102.87B$106.92B$99.87B$95.76B$103.63B$98.79B
Net Income$10.59B$10.59B$6.02B$7.50B$1.64B$5.74B$5.59B$9.43B$8.73B$5.75B$11.87B$13.19B$12.02B$16.48B$16.60B$15.86B$14.83B$13.43B$12.33B$10.42B
EBITDA$17.28B$17.28B$12.18B$14.69B$7.17B———————————————
EPS11.1711.176.438.141.806.356.2310.569.105.8711.8412.8311.3814.2813.7412.4911.019.578.506.84
Gross Margin58.2%58.2%56.7%55.4%54.0%54.9%55.9%54.6%46.4%46.7%48.2%49.8%50.0%49.5%49.0%46.9%46.1%45.7%44.1%42.2%
Operating Margin18.5%18.5%16.1%15.2%13.5%———————————————
Net Margin15.7%15.7%9.6%12.1%2.7%10.0%10.1%16.3%11.0%7.3%14.9%16.1%13.0%16.8%16.1%14.8%14.9%14.0%11.9%10.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.981.982.142.662.462.382.632.602.122.261.902.342.951.441.281.140.951.07——
Current Ratio0.800.80——————————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$11.46B$11.46B$11.76B$12.12B$8.46B$10.73B$15.58B$12.48B$11.85B$13.49B$13.52B$13.68B$13.13B———$15.36B$17.33B$14.64B—
Returns
ROE32.4%32.4%22.1%33.3%7.5%30.4%27.1%45.3%52.0%32.7%65.1%92.5%101.3%72.3%88.0%78.7%64.4%59.3%91.6%—
Valuation
P/E28.4828.4834.6319.5579.83———————————————
EV/EBITDA20.6320.6320.7913.1824.70———————————————
P/B9.369.367.646.515.97———————————————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth7.6%7.6%1.4%2.2%—3.9%-4.4%-27.5%0.6%-1.0%-2.2%-11.9%-5.7%-4.4%-3.8%7.1%4.3%-7.6%4.9%—
EPS Growth73.7%73.7%-21.0%352.2%—1.9%-41.0%16.0%55.0%-50.4%-7.7%12.8%-20.3%4.0%10.0%13.4%15.1%12.6%24.3%—
Dividend Yield2.1%2.1%——————————————————

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

36.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$28.58

Spread vs growth

36.9%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

25.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$34.58

Spread vs growth

48.4%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

17.4%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$55.69

Spread vs growth

56.3%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +24.2%

Total return

+24.2%

Start / end P/E

41.0x → 28.8x

EPS bridge

6.43 → 11.17

Residual

-21.9%

EPS growth+73.7%
Multiple rerating-29.7%
Dividend+2.1%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-21.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.