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JOE$62.77-1.35%
Fair $62.77+0.0%

JOE

The St. Joe Company

Real Estate / Real Estate - DiversifiedNYSE

$62.77

-0.86 (-1.35%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $62.77Fund rank 36/100 · PassSEC 18/18 yrs|
SA 54/C
F-Score: 8/9

Book/ROE base 3Y

$19.17

-32.6% CAGR · P/B 1.1x

Book/ROE base 5Y

$22.66

-18.4% base · -17.1% expected

Precio de entrada

$10.73

MOS 17% · confianza 92%

Book/ROE escenarios

audited · book/share $13.22 · quality 46.0/100

Pass 36/100
Bear 5Y$8.08-33.6%
Base 5Y$22.66-18.4%
Bull 5Y$45.13-6.4%
Return 0/100Downside 0/100Model quality 79/100Data QA 100/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

54/100

C

Piotroski

8/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

-17.1%

0/100

Data QA

90/100

SEC 100%

Latest source: sec-companyfactsPeriods: 18Warnings: 0sec-companyfacts: 18
Sector-specific NAV/AFFO model required: REIT/real-estate targets are disabled until FFO/AFFO/NAV/cap-rate data exists. REIT NAV/AFFO valuation requires positive AFFO/share history or TTM AFFO/share; generic FCF remains disabled.
Thesis & Journal · JOELocal privado en este navegador · The St. Joe Company
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.6B

P/E

32.1x

↑

EV/EBITDA

17.5x

↑

ROE

15.1%

↑

Gross Margin

43.1%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.75

↑
52-Week Range$63
$44$74

TradingView lightweight chart

JOE price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $62.77Periodo +158.8%
Buy zone: $10.73Bear 5Y: $8.080Fair value: $62.77Base 5Y: $22.66Bull 5Y: $45.13

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2008–2025 · 17 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+4.1%

FCF CAGR

+8.6%

FCF margin

36.4%

FCF / Net income

1.61x

Latest source

SEC-backed

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $513.2M · net income $115.6M · FCF $186.6M

2008-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

43.1%— pts

Operating margin

28.5%+38.4% pts

Net margin

22.5%+36.6% pts

FCF margin

36.4%+18.5% pts
SEC-backed annual metrics active for 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008. Local SEC Companyfacts override Yahoo/FMP for audited annual line items; provider-only fields remain as fallback.
MetricTTM
2025SEC
2024SEC
2023SEC
2022SEC
2021SEC
2020SEC
2019SEC
2018SEC
2017SEC
2016SEC
2015SEC
2014SEC
2013SEC
2012SEC
2011SEC
2010SEC
2009SEC
2008SEC
Income Statement
Revenue$513.2M$513.2M$402.7M$389.3M$252.3M$267.0M$160.6M$127.1M$110.3M$100.0M$96.9M$103.9M$701.9M$131.3M$139.4M$145.3M$99.5M$138.3M$258.2M
Net Income$115.6M$115.6M$74.2M$77.7M$70.9M$74.6M$45.2M$26.8M$32.4M$59.6M$15.9M$-1.7M$406.5M$5.0M$6.0M$-330.3M$-35.9M$-130.0M$-36.4M
EBITDA$233.1M$233.1M$178.3M$169.5M$135.9M$112.7M$59.9M$41.6M$38.4M$12.5M$11.6M$3.4M$521.7M$9.9M$12.2M$-371.0M$-37.9M$-193.2M$-8.2M
EPS1.991.991.271.331.211.270.770.45———————-3.58-0.39-1.42-0.40
Gross Margin43.1%43.1%41.5%39.4%42.2%——————————————
Operating Margin28.5%28.5%23.7%23.3%24.4%35.4%29.3%24.6%26.7%3.6%3.2%-5.9%73.1%0.6%1.5%-266.2%-51.8%-151.4%-9.9%
Net Margin22.5%22.5%18.4%20.0%28.1%27.9%28.2%21.1%29.4%59.6%16.4%-1.7%57.9%3.8%4.3%-227.3%-36.0%-94.0%-14.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.750.750.860.930.900.370.290.180.130.100.080.080.070.080.070.100.060.06—
Current Ratio4.204.20—————————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$186.6M$186.6M$100.2M$97.7M$40.9M$107.5M$31.6M$21.0M$38.8M$50.7M$9.4M$19.9M$328.6M$12.7M$22.6M$-12.3M$15.0M$48.2M$46.2M
Returns
ROE15.1%15.1%10.2%11.4%11.2%12.3%8.2%5.2%6.2%10.3%2.4%-0.3%41.9%0.9%1.1%-60.8%-4.1%-14.5%-3.7%
Valuation
P/E32.0732.0750.2447.9852.7450.2482.87141.80———————————
EV/EBITDA17.5117.5117.7122.9921.53——————————————
P/B4.834.835.145.455.946.196.847.37———————10.836.716.51—
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth27.4%27.4%3.5%54.3%-5.5%66.3%26.3%15.2%10.2%3.3%-6.7%-85.2%434.7%-5.8%-4.1%46.0%-28.0%-46.4%—
EPS Growth56.7%56.7%-4.5%9.9%-4.7%64.9%71.1%————————-817.9%72.5%-255.0%—
Dividend Yield1.0%1.0%—————————————————

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

40.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$5.57

Spread vs growth

15.8%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

27.6%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$6.74

Spread vs growth

29.1%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

18.5%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$10.85

Spread vs growth

38.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +41.4%

Total return

+41.4%

Start / end P/E

35.2x → 31.5x

EPS bridge

1.27 → 1.99

Residual

-5.9%

EPS growth+56.7%
Multiple rerating-10.4%
Dividend+1.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-5.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.