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KEL.TO$9.66+2.11%
Fair $9.66+0.0%

KEL.TO

Kelt Exploration Ltd.

Energy / Oil & Gas E&PToronto

$9.66

+0.20 (+2.11%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $9.66Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 44/C
F-Score: 4/9
Margin Compression

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-64.3M · quality 46.0/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 10/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

44/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · KEL.TOLocal privado en este navegador · Kelt Exploration Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.0B

P/E

43.9x

↑

EV/EBITDA

7.6x

↓

ROE

5.5%

↑

Gross Margin

24.5%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.16

↓
52-Week Range$10
$6$10

TradingView lightweight chart

KEL.TO price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $9.660Periodo +78.9%
Fair value: $9.660

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-5.8%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-12.5%

FCF / Net income

-1.02x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $513.1M · net income $63.1M · FCF $-64.3M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

24.5%-25.8% pts

Operating margin

9.9%-29.9% pts

Net margin

12.3%-13.6% pts

FCF margin

-12.5%-10.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$513.1M$513.1M$468.4M$495.6M$613.4M
Net Income$63.1M$63.1M$45.4M$86.0M$158.8M
EBITDA$278.9M$278.9M$208.3M$241.6M$327.8M
EPS0.310.311.110.440.81
Gross Margin24.5%24.5%28.7%37.3%50.3%
Operating Margin9.9%9.9%14.4%24.9%39.8%
Net Margin12.3%12.3%9.7%17.3%25.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.160.160.100.000.01
Current Ratio0.520.52———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-64.3M$-64.3M$-124.0M$528000.00$-11.6M
Returns
ROE5.5%5.5%4.3%8.6%17.6%
Valuation
P/E43.9143.916.4013.395.68
EV/EBITDA7.657.657.344.712.78
P/B1.711.711.331.151.00
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth9.5%9.5%-5.5%-19.2%—
EPS Growth-72.1%-72.1%152.3%-45.7%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

40.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.86

Spread vs growth

-112.4%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

27.3%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.04

Spread vs growth

-99.4%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

18.3%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.67

Spread vs growth

-90.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +40.4%

Total return

+40.4%

Start / end P/E

6.2x → 31.2x

EPS bridge

1.11 → 0.31

Residual

-290.3%

EPS growth-72.1%
Multiple rerating+402.7%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-290.3%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.