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KPG.AX$4.29+9.72%
Fair $4.29+0.0%

KPG.AX

Kelly Partners Group Holdings Limited

Industrials / Specialty Business ServicesASX

$4.29

+0.38 (+9.72%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $4.29Fund rank 31/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 35/D
F-Score: 1/9
High Debt

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $21.3M · quality 55.3/100

Data gap 31/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 88/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

35/100

D

Piotroski

1/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 3.58, above the 2.0 threshold
Thesis & Journal · KPG.AXLocal privado en este navegador · Kelly Partners Group Holdings Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$194M

P/E

61.3x

↑

EV/EBITDA

7.7x

↓

ROE

12.0%

↑

Gross Margin

100.0%

↑

Debt/Equity

3.58

↑
52-Week Range$4
$4$12

TradingView lightweight chart

KPG.AX price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $4.290Periodo +215.4%
Fair value: $4.290

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+27.6%

FCF CAGR

+41.7%

FCF margin

21.3%

FCF / Net income

8.42x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $134.6M · net income $3.4M · FCF $28.7M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

100.0%+0.0% pts

Operating margin

19.3%-6.4% pts

Net margin

2.5%-6.0% pts

FCF margin

21.3%+5.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$134.6M$134.6M$108.1M$86.5M$64.9M
Net Income$3.4M$3.4M$3.5M$3.9M$5.6M
EBITDA$37.2M$37.2M$31.7M$24.9M$24.1M
EPS0.080.080.080.090.12
Gross Margin100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Operating Margin19.3%19.3%21.2%16.8%25.7%
Net Margin2.5%2.5%3.3%4.5%8.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity3.583.583.523.542.60
Current Ratio0.570.57———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$28.7M$28.7M$21.3M$16.8M$10.1M
Returns
ROE12.0%12.0%15.6%19.1%26.9%
Valuation
P/E61.2961.2992.9853.8432.77
EV/EBITDA7.747.7412.7511.199.65
P/B6.786.7814.4710.308.81
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth24.5%24.5%25.0%33.4%—
EPS Growth-2.9%-2.9%-10.3%-29.4%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

71.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.38

Spread vs growth

-74.0%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

43.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.46

Spread vs growth

-46.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

25.6%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.74

Spread vs growth

-28.5%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -59.7%

Total return

-59.7%

Start / end P/E

136.0x → 56.4x

EPS bridge

0.08 → 0.08

Residual

+1.7%

EPS growth-2.9%
Multiple rerating-58.5%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+1.7%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.