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KTCG.VI$5.40-2.88%
Fair $5.40+0.0%

KTCG.VI

Kapsch TrafficCom AG

Industrials / Infrastructure OperationsVienna

$5.40

-0.16 (-2.88%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $5.40Fund rank 21/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 23/D
F-Score: 3/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 17%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $20.0M · quality 32.7/100

Data gap 21/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 18/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

23/100

D

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years ROE is -7.7%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · KTCG.VILocal privado en este navegador · Kapsch TrafficCom AG
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$77M

P/E

13.5x

↓

EV/EBITDA

7.4x

↓

ROE

-7.7%

↓

Gross Margin

15.6%

↓

Debt/Equity

1.69

↑
52-Week Range$5
$5$8

TradingView lightweight chart

KTCG.VI price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $5.400Periodo -85.0%
Fair value: $5.400

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+0.7%

FCF CAGR

+2.8%

FCF margin

3.8%

FCF / Net income

-2.91x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $530.3M · net income $-6.9M · FCF $20.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

15.6%-1.2% pts

Operating margin

-1.4%-2.5% pts

Net margin

-1.3%+0.5% pts

FCF margin

3.8%+0.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$530.3M$530.3M$538.8M$553.4M$519.8M
Net Income$-6.9M$-6.9M$23.2M$-24.8M$-9.3M
EBITDA$24.3M$24.3M$81.8M$20.8M$33.0M
EPS-0.48-0.481.72-1.91-0.72
Gross Margin15.6%15.6%12.1%15.3%16.8%
Operating Margin-1.4%-1.4%9.9%0.3%1.0%
Net Margin-1.3%-1.3%4.3%-4.5%-1.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.691.691.564.152.64
Current Ratio1.421.42———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$20.0M$20.0M$55.9M$-1.5M$18.4M
Returns
ROE-7.7%-7.7%25.7%-44.1%-11.2%
Valuation
P/E13.5013.504.93——
EV/EBITDA7.417.412.7116.6410.43
P/B0.870.871.272.822.21
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-1.6%-1.6%-2.6%6.5%—
EPS Growth-127.9%-127.9%190.1%-165.3%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -27.0%

Total return

-27.0%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

1.72 → -0.48

Residual

-27.0%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-27.0%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.