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LGIH$48.98+2.45%
Fair $48.98+0.0%

LGIH

LGI Homes, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical / Residential ConstructionNasdaqGS

$48.98

+1.17 (+2.45%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $48.98Fund rank 24/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 29/D
F-Score: 1/9
Declining RevenueMargin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-140.9M · quality 49.3/100

Data gap 24/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 21/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

29/100

D

Piotroski

1/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 15Warnings: 3unknown: 15
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years Operating margin has declined for 4 consecutive years ROE is 3.5%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · LGIHLocal privado en este navegador · LGI Homes, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.1B

P/E

16.1x

↓

EV/EBITDA

32.7x

↑

ROE

3.5%

↓

Gross Margin

20.7%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.80

↑
52-Week Range$49
$34$70

TradingView lightweight chart

LGIH price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $48.98Periodo +279.7%
Fair value: $48.98

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2011–2025 · 14 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+28.6%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-8.3%

FCF / Net income

-1.94x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.71B · net income $72.6M · FCF $-140.9M

2011-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

20.7%— pts

Operating margin

4.7%-4.2% pts

Net margin

4.3%-2.4% pts

FCF margin

-8.3%— pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
Income Statement
Revenue$1.71B$1.71B$2.20B$2.36B$2.30B$3.05B$2.37B$1.84B$1.50B$1.26B$838.3M$630.2M$383.3M$162.8M$76.2M$50.5M
Net Income$72.6M$72.6M$196.1M$199.2M$326.6M$429.6M$323.9M$178.6M$155.3M$113.3M$75.0M$52.8M$28.2M$22.3M$9.7M$3.4M
EBITDA$84.1M$84.1M$215.3M$235.7M$391.7M$548.9M$365.4M$228.2M$200.8M$170.6M$112.6M$80.6M$43.2M$16.7M$10.0M$4.5M
EPS3.123.128.308.4213.7617.2512.767.026.244.733.412.441.33———
Gross Margin20.7%20.7%24.2%23.0%28.1%———————————
Operating Margin4.7%4.7%9.6%9.9%16.9%18.0%15.4%12.4%13.3%13.5%13.3%12.6%11.1%10.1%12.9%8.8%
Net Margin4.3%4.3%8.9%8.4%14.2%14.1%13.7%9.7%10.3%9.0%9.0%8.4%7.4%13.7%12.7%6.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.800.800.750.730.77—————————0.59—
Current Ratio35.3235.32——————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-140.9M$-140.9M$-145.7M$-58.4M$-371.6M———————————
Returns
ROE3.5%3.5%9.6%10.7%19.9%—————————38.5%—
Valuation
P/E16.1116.1110.4714.907.38———————————
EV/EBITDA32.6732.6716.3618.149.29———————————
P/B0.540.541.011.601.47———————————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-22.6%-22.6%-6.6%2.3%—28.8%28.8%22.2%19.6%50.1%33.0%64.4%135.4%113.6%51.1%—
EPS Growth-62.4%-62.4%-1.4%-38.8%—35.2%81.8%12.5%31.9%38.7%39.8%83.5%————

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

11.7%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$4.35

Spread vs growth

-74.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

11.0%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$5.26

Spread vs growth

-73.4%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

10.5%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$8.47

Spread vs growth

-72.9%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -2.2%

Total return

-2.2%

Start / end P/E

6.0x → 15.7x

EPS bridge

8.30 → 3.12

Residual

-99.9%

EPS growth-62.4%
Multiple rerating+160.1%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-99.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.