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LITE$904.50+5.79%
Fair $904.50+0.0%

LITE

Lumentum Holdings Inc.

Technology / Communication EquipmentNasdaqGS

$904.50

+49.54 (+5.79%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $904.50Fund rank 20/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 34/D
F-Score: 8/9
High DebtLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-104.7M · quality 23.0/100

Data gap 20/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 16/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

34/100

D

Piotroski

8/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 13Warnings: 2unknown: 13
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 2.30, above the 2.0 threshold ROE is 2.3%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · LITELocal privado en este navegador · Lumentum Holdings Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$70.4B

P/E

160.4x

↑

EV/EBITDA

609.0x

↑

ROE

2.3%

↓

Gross Margin

28.0%

↓

Debt/Equity

2.30

↑
52-Week Range$905
$71$1086

TradingView lightweight chart

LITE price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $904.50Periodo +5220.6%
Fair value: $904.50

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2013–2025 · 12 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+6.5%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-6.4%

FCF / Net income

-4.04x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.65B · net income $25.9M · FCF $-104.7M

2013-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

28.0%-1.0% pts

Operating margin

-11.7%-12.2% pts

Net margin

1.6%+0.7% pts

FCF margin

-6.4%-9.4% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
Income Statement
Revenue$1.65B$1.65B$1.36B$1.77B$1.71B———$1.25B$1.00B$903.0M$837.1M$817.9M$769.9M
Net Income$25.9M$25.9M$-546.5M$-131.6M$198.9M$397.3M$135.5M$-36.4M$248.1M$-102.5M$9.3M$-3.4M$10.7M$6.5M
EBITDA$106.8M$106.8M$-81.6M$188.7M$482.4M—————————
EPS0.370.37-8.12-1.932.685.071.75-0.543.82-1.71-0.05-0.060.18—
Gross Margin28.0%28.0%18.5%32.2%46.0%———34.6%31.8%30.7%30.8%31.4%28.9%
Operating Margin-11.7%-11.7%-26.6%-5.0%17.6%———11.2%4.8%1.3%-2.8%1.1%0.5%
Net Margin1.6%1.6%-40.2%-7.4%11.6%———19.9%-10.2%1.0%-0.4%1.3%0.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity2.302.302.672.121.030.780.88—0.490.74————
Current Ratio1.141.14————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-104.7M$-104.7M$-112.3M$51.3M$368.1M$653.9M$438.3M$164.1M$154.3M$-53.1M$4.6M$-44.3M$-1.4M$23.0M
Returns
ROE2.3%2.3%-57.1%-9.7%10.6%20.1%7.7%-2.4%26.8%-16.6%1.9%-0.9%3.2%2.3%
Valuation
P/E160.37160.37——29.04—————————
EV/EBITDA609.00609.00—30.3713.31—————————
P/B55.4855.483.892.743.08—————————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth21.0%21.0%-23.1%3.2%————24.6%10.9%7.9%2.3%6.2%—
EPS Growth104.6%104.6%-320.7%-172.0%—189.7%424.1%-114.1%323.4%-3320.0%16.7%-133.3%——

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

500.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$80.26

Spread vs growth

-396.3%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

204.7%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$97.11

Spread vs growth

-100.1%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

83.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$156.40

Spread vs growth

21.5%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +1151.4%

Total return

+1151.4%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-8.12 → 0.37

Residual

+1151.4%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+1151.4%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.