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LLY$1082.89-2.00%
Fair $1082.89+0.0%

LLY

Eli Lilly and Company

Healthcare / Drug Manufacturers - GeneralNYSE

$1082.89

-22.11 (-2.00%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1082.89Fund rank 23/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 61/B
F-Score: 7/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 32% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $414.0M · quality 28.7/100

Data gap 23/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 24/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

61/100

B

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 19Warnings: 0unknown: 19
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · LLYLocal privado en este navegador · Eli Lilly and Company
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$965.7B

P/E

38.4x

↑

EV/EBITDA

31.8x

↑

ROE

77.8%

↑

Gross Margin

83.0%

↑

Debt/Equity

1.60

↑
52-Week Range$1083
$624$1149

TradingView lightweight chart

LLY price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,083Periodo +1551.7%
Fair value: $1,083

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2007–2025 · 18 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+7.2%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

9.2%

FCF / Net income

0.29x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $65.18B · net income $20.64B · FCF $5.96B

2007-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

83.0%— pts

Operating margin

45.6%— pts

Net margin

31.7%+15.8% pts

FCF margin

9.2%— pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
Income Statement
Revenue$65.18B$65.18B$45.04B$34.12B$28.54B$28.32B$24.54B$22.32B$21.49B$19.97B$21.22B$19.96B$19.62B$23.11B$22.60B$24.29B$23.08B$21.84B$20.37B$18.63B
Net Income$20.64B$20.64B$10.59B$5.24B$6.24B$5.58B$6.19B$8.32B$3.23B$-204.1M$2.74B$2.41B$2.39B$4.68B$4.09B$4.35B$5.07B$4.33B$-2.07B$2.95B
EBITDA$31.69B$31.69B$18.81B$11.85B$8.66B———————————————
EPS22.9522.9511.715.806.576.126.798.893.13-0.192.582.262.234.323.663.904.583.94-1.89—
Gross Margin83.0%83.0%81.3%79.2%76.8%———————————————
Operating Margin45.6%45.6%37.8%30.3%29.0%———————————————
Net Margin31.7%31.7%23.5%15.4%21.9%19.7%25.2%37.3%15.0%-1.0%12.9%12.1%12.2%20.3%18.1%17.9%22.0%19.8%-10.2%15.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.601.602.362.341.521.712.945.300.940.860.600.550.350.240.370.400.55———
Current Ratio1.501.50——————————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$5.96B$5.96B$414.0M$-3.15B$4.60B———————————————
Returns
ROE77.8%77.8%74.2%48.6%58.6%62.2%109.8%319.1%32.9%-1.8%19.5%16.5%15.5%26.6%27.7%32.1%40.8%———
Valuation
P/E38.4338.4366.78106.6555.22———————————————
EV/EBITDA31.8431.8439.2149.0341.46———————————————
P/B36.7036.7049.5351.8732.38———————————————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth44.7%44.7%32.0%19.6%—15.4%9.9%3.8%7.6%-5.9%6.3%1.7%-15.1%2.3%-6.9%5.2%5.7%7.2%9.3%—
EPS Growth96.0%96.0%101.9%-11.7%—-9.9%-23.6%184.0%1747.4%-107.4%14.2%1.3%-48.4%18.0%-6.2%-14.8%16.2%308.5%——
Dividend Yield0.6%0.6%——————————————————

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

61.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$96.09

Spread vs growth

34.8%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

38.3%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$116.27

Spread vs growth

57.7%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

23.4%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$187.25

Spread vs growth

72.6%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +47.4%

Total return

+47.4%

Start / end P/E

63.0x → 47.2x

EPS bridge

11.71 → 22.95

Residual

-24.1%

EPS growth+96.0%
Multiple rerating-25.1%
Dividend+0.6%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-24.1%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.