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LOCO$14.55-1.32%
Fair $14.55+0.0%

LOCO

El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical / RestaurantsNasdaqGS

$14.55

-0.19 (-1.32%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $14.55Fund rank 34/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 48/C
F-Score: 8/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 23% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $25.4M · quality 71.3/100

Data gap 34/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 77/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

48/100

C

Piotroski

8/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 14Warnings: 0unknown: 14
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists.
Thesis & Journal · LOCOLocal privado en este navegador · El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$443M

P/E

14.9x

↓

EV/EBITDA

11.4x

↑

ROE

9.1%

↑

Gross Margin

22.2%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.83

↑
52-Week Range$15
$9$16

TradingView lightweight chart

LOCO price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $14.56Periodo -39.4%
Fair value: $14.55

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2012–2025 · 13 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+4.0%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

5.2%

FCF / Net income

0.96x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $490.0M · net income $26.5M · FCF $25.4M

2012-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

22.2%— pts

Operating margin

8.6%— pts

Net margin

5.4%+8.1% pts

FCF margin

5.2%— pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
Income Statement
Revenue$490.0M$490.0M$473.0M$468.7M$470.0M——$442.3M$435.8M$401.7M$380.1M$355.1M$344.9M$314.7M$293.6M
Net Income$26.5M$26.5M$25.7M$25.6M$20.8M$29.1M$24.5M$24.9M$-9.0M$8.6M$18.3M$24.1M$42.5M$-16.9M$-7.9M
EBITDA$58.0M$58.0M$56.9M$54.9M$45.0M$56.5M$50.4M$56.2M$8.4M$25.0M$50.7M$61.9M$60.8M$52.6M—
EPS0.900.900.860.740.570.800.680.67-0.230.220.470.621.24-0.59-0.27
Gross Margin22.2%22.2%21.9%20.0%17.8%——————————
Operating Margin8.6%8.6%8.8%7.8%6.4%——8.7%-2.2%1.7%9.1%13.8%14.3%13.5%—
Net Margin5.4%5.4%5.4%5.5%4.4%——5.6%-2.1%2.1%4.8%6.8%12.3%-5.4%-2.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.830.831.011.090.900.130.23————0.510.79——
Current Ratio0.340.34—————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$25.4M$25.4M$27.7M$19.4M$18.6M$35.1M$33.9M$20.7M$17.6M$17.4M$11.9M————
Returns
ROE9.1%9.1%9.9%10.2%7.4%9.4%8.8%10.1%-3.4%3.1%6.9%9.8%20.2%-34.8%-12.2%
Valuation
P/E14.8514.8513.2211.8417.65——————————
EV/EBITDA11.4211.4210.5810.3313.35——————————
P/B1.471.471.311.201.31——————————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth3.6%3.6%0.9%-0.3%———1.5%8.5%5.7%7.1%3.0%9.6%7.2%—
EPS Growth4.7%4.7%16.2%29.8%—17.6%1.5%391.3%-204.5%-53.2%-24.2%-50.0%310.2%-118.5%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

12.8%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.29

Spread vs growth

-8.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

11.7%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.56

Spread vs growth

-7.0%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

10.8%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$2.52

Spread vs growth

-6.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +39.8%

Total return

+39.8%

Start / end P/E

12.1x → 16.2x

EPS bridge

0.86 → 0.90

Residual

+1.6%

EPS growth+4.7%
Multiple rerating+33.6%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+1.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.