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LYL.AX$16.25+1.94%
Fair $16.25+0.0%

LYL.AX

Lycopodium Limited

Industrials / Engineering & ConstructionASX

$16.25

+0.31 (+1.94%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $16.25Fund rank 35/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 69/B
F-Score: 2/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $24.5M · quality 70.3/100

Data gap 35/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 65/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

69/100

B

Piotroski

2/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · LYL.AXLocal privado en este navegador · Lycopodium Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$646M

P/E

18.3x

↑

EV/EBITDA

8.6x

↓

ROE

27.8%

↑

Gross Margin

92.1%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.11

↓
52-Week Range$16
$10$16

TradingView lightweight chart

LYL.AX price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $16.25Periodo +1525.0%
Fair value: $16.25

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+13.4%

FCF CAGR

-1.5%

FCF margin

10.6%

FCF / Net income

0.83x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $333.9M · net income $42.2M · FCF $35.2M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

92.1%+12.0% pts

Operating margin

15.9%-0.1% pts

Net margin

12.6%+0.8% pts

FCF margin

10.6%-5.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$333.9M$333.9M$344.5M$323.9M$228.7M
Net Income$42.2M$42.2M$50.7M$46.8M$27.2M
EBITDA$67.8M$67.8M$76.4M$70.5M$44.6M
EPS1.061.061.281.180.68
Gross Margin92.1%92.1%90.7%87.7%80.2%
Operating Margin15.9%15.9%18.5%18.0%16.0%
Net Margin12.6%12.6%14.7%14.4%11.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.110.110.100.130.17
Current Ratio2.302.30———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$35.2M$35.2M$24.5M$14.4M$36.8M
Returns
ROE27.8%27.8%39.6%40.2%27.0%
Valuation
P/E18.2618.2610.058.328.17
EV/EBITDA8.608.605.964.573.09
P/B4.254.253.983.342.21
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-3.1%-3.1%6.4%41.6%—
EPS Growth-16.8%-16.8%8.4%72.1%—
Dividend Yield2.9%2.9%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

10.7%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.44

Spread vs growth

-27.5%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

10.4%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.74

Spread vs growth

-27.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

10.2%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$2.81

Spread vs growth

-27.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +55.0%

Total return

+55.0%

Start / end P/E

8.4x → 15.3x

EPS bridge

1.28 → 1.06

Residual

-13.9%

EPS growth-16.8%
Multiple rerating+82.8%
Dividend+2.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-13.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.