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v0.1
MEC$30.88+15.01%
Fair $31.91+3.3%

MEC

Mayville Engineering Company, Inc.

Industrials / Metal FabricationNYSE

$30.88

+4.03 (+15.01%)

Fairly Valued+3.3%Fair Value $31.91Fund rank 27/100 · PassSEC 9/9 yrs|
SA 39/D
F-Score: 2/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

$10.52

-30.1% CAGR · yield 9.5%

FCF base 5Y

$10.15

-19.9% base · -10.9% expected

Precio de entrada

$4.15

MOS 28% · confianza 46%

FCF escenarios

modelled · normalized FCF $26.9M · quality 45.3/100

Pass 27/100
Bear 5Y$4.17-33.0%
Base 5Y$10.15-19.9%
Bull 5Y$44.80+7.7%
Return 0/100Downside 0/100Model quality 28/100Data QA 67/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

39/100

D

Piotroski

2/9

balance/quality

Valuation

53/100

+3.3% upside

5Y CAGR

-10.9%

6/100

Data QA

100/100

SEC 100%

Latest source: sec-companyfactsPeriods: 9Warnings: 2sec-companyfacts: 9
Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years ROE is -3.4%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · MECLocal privado en este navegador · Mayville Engineering Company, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$787M

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

23.1x

↑

ROE

-3.4%

↓

Gross Margin

9.9%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.98

↑
52-Week Range$31
$12$31
EV/EBITDA Historical23.1x

TradingView lightweight chart

MEC price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $30.88Periodo +87.5%
Buy zone: $4.150Bear 5Y: $4.170Fair value: $31.91Base 5Y: $10.15Bull 5Y: $44.80

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2017–2025 · 8 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+7.2%

FCF CAGR

+4.1%

FCF margin

4.9%

FCF / Net income

-3.32x

Latest source

SEC-backed

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $546.5M · net income $-8.1M · FCF $26.9M

2017-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

9.9%— pts

Operating margin

-0.7%-3.7% pts

Net margin

-1.5%-3.2% pts

FCF margin

4.9%-1.3% pts
SEC-backed annual metrics active for 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017. Local SEC Companyfacts override Yahoo/FMP for audited annual line items; provider-only fields remain as fallback.
MetricTTM
2025SEC
2024SEC
2023SEC
2022SEC
2021SEC
2020SEC
2019SEC
2018SEC
2017SEC
Income Statement
Revenue$546.5M$546.5M$581.6M$588.4M$539.4M$454.8M$357.6M$519.7M$354.5M$313.3M
Net Income$-8.1M$-8.1M$26.0M$7.8M$18.7M$-7.5M$-7.1M$-4.8M$17.9M$5.2M
EBITDA$37.4M$37.4M$82.1M$55.1M$55.1M—————
EPS-0.40-0.401.240.380.91-0.36-0.36-0.27——
Gross Margin9.9%9.9%12.2%11.8%11.3%—————
Operating Margin-0.7%-0.7%7.7%3.4%4.8%-1.6%-1.8%-0.4%6.3%3.0%
Net Margin-1.5%-1.5%4.5%1.3%3.5%-1.6%-2.0%-0.9%5.1%1.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.980.980.440.790.50—————
Current Ratio1.641.64————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$26.9M$26.9M$77.7M$23.8M$-6.2M$-24.9M$28.7M$7.6M$18.8M$19.5M
Returns
ROE-3.4%-3.4%10.3%3.4%8.6%-3.8%-3.5%-2.4%——
Valuation
P/E——21.2969.4729.01—————
EV/EBITDA23.1223.125.298.346.85—————
P/B2.242.242.202.382.512.772.622.29——
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-6.0%-6.0%-1.2%9.1%18.6%27.2%-31.2%46.6%13.1%—
EPS Growth-132.3%-132.3%226.3%-58.2%352.8%0.0%-33.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +95.9%

Total return

+95.9%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

1.24 → -0.40

Residual

+95.9%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+95.9%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.

5.3x
23.1x
EV/EBITDA vs Sector23.1x
4.9xmed 9.8x34.7x