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MED$12.70+1.36%
Fair $12.70+0.0%

MED

Medifast, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical / Personal ServicesNYSE

$12.70

+0.17 (+1.36%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $12.70Fund rank 33/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 36/D
F-Score: 3/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 31% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $17.0M · quality 65.0/100

Data gap 33/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 44/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

36/100

D

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

20/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 17Warnings: 2unknown: 17
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is -9.4%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · MEDLocal privado en este navegador · Medifast, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$141M

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

2102.8x

↑

ROE

-9.4%

↓

Gross Margin

71.3%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.05

↓
52-Week Range$13
$9$15

TradingView lightweight chart

MED price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $12.70Periodo +3594.5%
Fair value: $12.70

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2009–2025 · 16 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+5.3%

FCF CAGR

-14.0%

FCF margin

0.3%

FCF / Net income

-0.07x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $385.8M · net income $-18.7M · FCF $1.2M

2009-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

71.3%-1.9% pts

Operating margin

-3.7%-14.6% pts

Net margin

-4.8%-11.5% pts

FCF margin

0.3%-7.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
Income Statement
Revenue$385.8M$385.8M$602.5M$1.07B$1.60B$1.53B$934.8M$713.7M$501.0M$301.6M$274.5M$272.8M$285.3M$324.1M$318.6M$298.2M$257.6M$169.7M
Net Income$-18.7M$-18.7M$2.1M$99.4M$143.6M$164.0M$102.9M$77.9M$55.8M$27.7M$17.8M$20.1M$13.2M$24.0M$15.9M$18.5M$19.6M$11.4M
EBITDA$29000.00$29000.00$15.6M$139.5M$195.7M$223.1M$138.5M$95.7M$73.5M$43.8M$32.3M$35.8M$38.3M$46.3M$35.5M$35.7M$37.5M$23.8M
EPS——0.199.1012.7313.898.686.434.622.291.491.661.031.731.161.311.350.77
Gross Margin71.3%71.3%73.8%72.4%71.3%73.9%74.6%75.2%75.8%75.5%74.9%73.8%73.3%74.2%74.1%75.3%74.7%73.3%
Operating Margin-3.7%-3.7%0.5%11.8%11.6%14.2%14.4%12.8%13.8%13.1%9.8%10.5%10.6%11.9%8.5%9.2%12.3%10.9%
Net Margin-4.8%-4.8%0.3%9.3%9.0%10.7%11.0%10.9%11.1%9.2%6.5%7.4%4.6%7.4%5.0%6.2%7.6%6.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.050.050.080.110.17————————0.000.030.050.06—
Current Ratio4.804.80————————————————
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$1.2M$1.2M$17.0M$141.2M$177.9M$60.3M$139.3M$74.2M$55.9M$40.0M$22.5M$26.6M$18.5M$31.0M$32.1M$20.6M$16.7M$14.0M
Returns
ROE-9.4%-9.4%1.0%49.3%92.6%81.0%65.4%74.3%51.1%26.0%18.6%22.6%16.4%24.4%17.5%25.3%27.3%23.8%
Valuation
P/E——92.637.099.40—————————————
EV/EBITDA2102.762102.767.584.536.58—————————————
P/B0.700.700.923.508.71—————————————
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-36.0%-36.0%-43.8%-32.9%—63.2%31.0%42.4%66.1%9.8%0.6%-4.4%-12.0%1.7%6.8%15.8%51.7%—
EPS Growth——-97.9%-28.5%—60.0%35.0%39.2%101.7%53.7%-10.2%61.2%-40.5%49.1%-11.5%-3.0%75.3%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -9.7%

Total return

-9.7%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.19 → n/d

Residual

-9.7%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-9.7%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.